Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Real Madrid
2nd · 57 pts · 23 played
WWWWW
4–1Full time
Real Sociedad
8th · 31 pts · 23 played
WWWDW
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 59). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Real Sociedad. Real Madrid had 6 days of rest, Real Sociedad 7 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real Madrid65%
Draw22%
Real Sociedad14%
Real Madrid69%
Draw19%
Real Sociedad12%
Real Madrid65%
Draw21%
Real Sociedad14%
Real Madrid57%
Draw24%
Real Sociedad18%
Real Madrid65%
Draw21%
Real Sociedad14%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 29
Team strength
Real MadridReal Sociedad
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
89
AttackIn forecast
62
85
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridReal Sociedad
2.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
0.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.35
2.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
91%
Scored inContext
87%
48%
Clean sheetsContext
4%
18.30
ShotsContext
12.74
6.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
38%
On target shareContext
38%
11.39
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
62%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.89
9.65
Shots allowedContext
12.61
3.47
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.10
BlocksContext
3.65
2.42
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
70%
Save rateContext
67%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
574
PassesContext
417
514
Accurate passesContext
342
90%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.16
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.39
FoulsContext
14.57
12.91
Fouls sufferedContext
11.87
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.13
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
100%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.60
ShotsContext
11.70
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
36%
On target shareContext
42%
11.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
70%
Box shareContext
62%
16%
ConversionContext
14%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.90
Shots allowedContext
13.20
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.20
BlocksContext
3.89
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
76%
Save rateContext
67%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
547
PassesContext
409
489
Accurate passesContext
334
90%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.17
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.20
FoulsContext
13.90
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Sociedad
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel352 km154 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 604 km | 154 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
24D. Huijsen
22A. Rüdiger
12T. Alexander-Arnold
6E. Camavinga
14A. Tchouaméni
15A. Güler
8F. Valverde
7Vinícius
16Gonzalo García
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz
5Zubeldia
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
4Jon Gorrotxategi
12Y. Herrera
22Wesley Gassova
18Carlos Soler
15Pablo Marín
10Mikel Oyarzabal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Real Sociedad+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
2.73points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-0-1
- Scored
- 2.27
- Conceded
- 0.64
Real Sociedad · Away
1.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-4
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 1.27
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Levante | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | W 5–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Alaves | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Elche | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–5 A | D 1–1 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 54 of 66 · 2.45 per game | 31 of 66 · 1.41 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
7 Real Madrid wins2 draws1 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game1.60 – 0.60
Over 2.530%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets50% · 20%
- 13 Sep 2025Real Sociedad1–2Real Madrid
- 24 May 2025Real Madrid2–0Real Sociedad
- 14 Sep 2024Real Sociedad0–2Real Madrid
- 26 Apr 2024Real Sociedad0–1Real Madrid
- 17 Sep 2023Real Madrid2–1Real Sociedad
- 2 May 2023Real Sociedad2–0Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.13 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 1.35 | |
| Match goals | 2.91 | 2.78 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 83% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 48% | 4% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 13% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Real Madrid | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 10.13 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 15/20 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 12/20 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 9/20 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.65 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.35 | 4.83 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 11/23 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Real Madrid | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 11.11 | 9.90 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 89% 8/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.40 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 4.16
Red cards0.10league 0.28
Cards 5+41%league 45%
Fouls23.7league 24.6
Penalties0.34league 0.36
Home wins41%league 47%
Real Madrid2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 5.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D23 Nov 25A · Elche2–20
- W21 Jan 24H · Almeria3–23
Real Sociedad3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Jan 26A · Getafe2–11
- W31 Mar 24A · Alaves1–02
- D12 Aug 23H · Girona1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid23 games · scored 49 · conceded 18
3
1
0-15
7
1
16-30
11
3
31-45
8
6
46-60
6
4
61-75
14
3
76-90
Real Sociedad23 games · scored 33 · conceded 31
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
9
9
31-45
7
6
46-60
5
3
61-75
8
8
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 26 · conceded 10
2
0-15
5
16-30
1
4
31-45
7
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
8
1
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
0-15
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
