Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 66). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Villarreal. Real Madrid were without F. Valverde and Dean Huijsen. Real Madrid had 20.2 days of rest, Villarreal 20.1 and had to travel 311 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel311 kmRest days20.2 · 20.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real Madrid65%
Draw18%
Villarreal17%
Real Madrid64%
Draw21%
Villarreal15%
Real Madrid66%
Draw18%
Villarreal16%
Real Madrid57%
Draw21%
Villarreal23%
Real Madrid64%
Draw19%
Villarreal17%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 2–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
20°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 4 km/h
- Humidity 41%
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 46
Team strength
Real Madrid
Villarreal
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
89
AttackIn forecast
76
85
DefenceIn forecast
73
79
Form indexContext
47
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridVillarreal
2.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
2.64
xGVia Att/Def
2.33
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
86%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
18.86
ShotsContext
16.00
7.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.57
40%
On target shareContext
41%
13.14
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
67%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.71
12.71
Shots allowedContext
12.86
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.71
3.57
BlocksContext
6.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
68%
Save rateContext
76%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
526
PassesContext
594
477
Accurate passesContext
530
91%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.17
Team ratingContext
6.95
8.43
FoulsContext
10.71
14.29
Fouls sufferedContext
12.86
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
2.38
xGVia Att/Def
2.11
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.30
ShotsContext
15.00
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
41%
On target shareContext
41%
12.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
70%
Box shareContext
68%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.75
13.00
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.30
BlocksContext
6.00
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
77%
Save rateContext
74%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
531
PassesContext
555
478
Accurate passesContext
489
90%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.94
8.80
FoulsContext
9.70
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
LWWWL
Rest20.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 79 · 9 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Villarreal
LLLWW
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel311 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 47 · 6 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.2La Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 20.1La Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
22A. Rüdiger
16I. Konaté
12T. Alexander-Arnold
14A. Tchouaméni
8F. Valverde
25Y. Diomande
5J. Bellingham
15A. Güler
10K. Mbappé
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
25P. Gulácsi(G)
23Sergi Cardona
12Renato Veiga
6Pau Navarro
3A. Freeman
18P. Gueye
8J. Foyth
10Alberto Moleiro
14Santi Comesaña
11I. Akhomach
22Ayoze Pérez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −14.6% · Defence line −22.5% of weighted minutes
- MID F. Valverde Core 7.24 Att −13.1% Def −9.0%
- DEF Dean Huijsen Starter 7.06 Def −8.7%
- DEF Raúl Asencio Rotation 6.86 Def −3.0%
- DEF Éder Militão Rotation 7.09 Def −1.5%
- ATT Rodrygo Rotation 7.09 Att −1.5%
- DEF F. Mendy Depth 6.47 Def −0.4%
Villarreal
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −3.2% · Defence line −2.4% of weighted minutes
- MID T. Buchanan Rotation 6.66 Att −3.2% Def −2.4%
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid-1.2 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Villarreal+0.9 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Villarreal · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Malaga | W 4–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
5 Real Madrid wins3 draws2 Villarreal wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 24 Jan 2026Villarreal0–2Real Madrid
- 4 Oct 2025Real Madrid3–1Villarreal
- 15 Mar 2025Villarreal1–2Real Madrid
- 5 Oct 2024Real Madrid2–0Villarreal
- 19 May 2024Villarreal4–4Real Madrid
- 17 Dec 2023Real Madrid4–1Villarreal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.57 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 3.57 | 3.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 86% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 86% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 7.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 3.71 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 11.00 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.86 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 4.14 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 7.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 11.70 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.70 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.80league 4.24
Red cards0.30league 0.26
Cards 5+59%league 53%
Fouls25.4league 24.6
Penalties0.24league 0.36
Home wins37%league 44%
Real Madrid7 with this referee
Record6-1-0
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.9
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds1
- W6 Mar 26A · Celta Vigo2–12
- W1 Feb 26H · Rayo Vallecano2–12
- W23 Sep 25A · Levante4–11
- D25 May 24H · Real Betis0–02
- W25 Feb 24H · Sevilla1–01
Villarreal7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L28 Aug 26A · Alaves0–11
- L28 Feb 26A · Barcelona1–42
- W3 Jan 26A · Elche3–13
- W20 Sep 25H · Osasuna2–12
- W10 May 25A · Girona1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid7 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
2
76-90
Villarreal7 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 25 · conceded 11
5
0-15
6
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 20 · conceded 18
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
8
7
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
