Real Sociedad
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Sociedad
8th · 10 pts · 7 played
WDWLW
3–2Full time
Deportivo La Coruna
7th · 10 pts · 7 played
WWDLD
Real Sociedad47.9%fair odds 2.09
Draw25.2%fair odds 3.97
Deportivo La Coruna26.9%fair odds 3.71
Expected goals1.69 – 1.22total 2.91
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Deportivo La Coruna
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Sociedad ↓ · Deportivo La Coruna → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Sociedad goals, columns Deportivo La Coruna goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.45
- 2–19.5%10.53
- 1–08.6%11.56
- 2–07.8%12.81
- 1–26.8%14.63
- 0–06.1%16.48
- 0–16.1%16.50
- 2–25.8%17.32
- 3–15.3%18.70
- 3–04.4%22.74
Winning margin
11.1%
Real Sociedad by 3+
fair 8.99
14.7%
Real Sociedad by 2
fair 6.79
22.0%
Real Sociedad by 1
fair 4.54
25.2%
Draw
fair 3.97
15.7%
Deportivo La Coruna by 1
fair 6.38
7.6%
Deportivo La Coruna by 2
fair 13.10
3.6%
Deportivo La Coruna by 3+
fair 27.56
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Real Sociedad goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Deportivo La Coruna goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad win | 47.9% | 47.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.2% | 25.1% | +0.0 pp |
| Deportivo La Coruna win | 26.9% | 27.1% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 55.8% | -0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.0% | 58.2% | -0.2 pp |
| Expected goals Real Sociedad | 1.69 | 1.69 | -0.00 |
| Expected goals Deportivo La Coruna | 1.22 | 1.22 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Sociedad win47.9%2.09
- Draw25.2%3.97
- Deportivo La Coruna win26.9%3.71
- Double chance Real Sociedad or draw73.1%1.37
- Double chance Real Sociedad or Deportivo La Coruna74.8%1.34
- Double chance Deportivo La Coruna or draw52.1%1.92
- Draw no bet Real Sociedad64.0%1.56
- Draw no bet Deportivo La Coruna36.0%2.78
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.06
- Over 1.579.2%1.26
- Over 2.555.5%1.80
- Over 3.533.2%3.02
- Over 4.516.9%5.91
- Under 1.520.8%4.81
- Under 2.544.5%2.25
- Under 3.566.8%1.50
Both teams to score
- Yes58.0%1.73
- No42.0%2.38
- Yes and over 2.546.1%2.17
- Real Sociedad win and yes24.3%4.12
- Draw and yes19.1%5.23
- Deportivo La Coruna win and yes14.5%6.87
Team goals
- Real Sociedad over 0.581.5%1.23
- Real Sociedad over 1.550.3%1.99
- Real Sociedad over 2.524.0%4.17
- Deportivo La Coruna over 0.570.4%1.42
- Deportivo La Coruna over 1.534.3%2.91
- Deportivo La Coruna over 2.512.4%8.06
- Real Sociedad clean sheet29.6%3.37
- Deportivo La Coruna clean sheet18.5%5.42
- Real Sociedad win to nil23.6%4.24
- Deportivo La Coruna win to nil12.4%8.07
Handicap
- Real Sociedad −1.525.9%3.87
- Real Sociedad −2.511.1%8.99
- Deportivo La Coruna +1.574.1%1.35
- Deportivo La Coruna +2.588.9%1.13
- Deportivo La Coruna −1.511.3%8.88
- Real Sociedad +1.588.7%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored74
Favourite won47.3%
Avg chance given to result42.0%
1X2 Brier0.572
Over 2.5 called right60.8%
BTTS called right59.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 12 | 38.9% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 34 | 44.8% | 32.4% |
| 50–60% | 13 | 55.1% | 53.8% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 64.6% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 74.8% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 86.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 54 of 74 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5827 | 0.5614 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.3% | 43.2% |
| Favourite won | 46.3% | 53.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 54 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 5 of 74 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.