Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna – 11 Oct 2026

La Liga Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 11 · 15:15 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián

Real Sociedad 8th · 10 pts · 7 played WDWLW

3–2Full time

Deportivo La Coruna 7th · 10 pts · 7 played WWDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Sociedad were slight favourites.

Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Deportivo La Coruna. Real Sociedad were without J. Aramburu. Deportivo La Coruna were without P. Aubameyang and L. Amatucci. Real Sociedad had 20.8 days of rest, Deportivo La Coruna 20.9 and had to travel 519 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel519 kmRest days20.8 · 20.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Real Sociedad48%

Draw24%

Deportivo La Coruna28%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.22

Real Sociedad48%

Draw25%

Deportivo La Coruna27%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.12

Real Sociedad48%

Draw24%

Deportivo La Coruna28%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.22

Real Sociedad41%

Draw25%

Deportivo La Coruna34%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.36

Real Sociedad48%

Draw24%

Deportivo La Coruna28%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.22

Over 2.5 56% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

22°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 65%

Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 23

Team strength

Real Sociedad

Deportivo La Coruna

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

62 AttackIn forecast 40

48 DefenceIn forecast 57

58 Form indexContext 65

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack—

Defense risk—

Deportivo La Coruna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Sociedad

Deportivo La Coruna

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43

1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.46

57% Scored inContext 86%

14% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.43 ShotsContext 10.14

5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.86

38% On target shareContext 38%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.86

57% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 14%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.83

15.86 Shots allowedContext 12.86

6.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43

3.71 BlocksContext 3.29

4.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

72% Save rateContext 74%

49% PossessionIn forecast 47%

468 PassesContext 444

398 Accurate passesContext 376

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.43 FoulsContext 12.43

10.14 Fouls sufferedContext 11.71

2.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.71

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.43

70% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.50 ShotsContext 10.00

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

38% On target shareContext 40%

7.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

59% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 15%

2.13 OffsidesContext 1.67

15.20 Shots allowedContext 12.10

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.30 BlocksContext 3.20

4.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

68% Save rateContext 78%

50% PossessionIn forecast 44%

474 PassesContext 425

401 Accurate passesContext 358

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.86

13.00 FoulsContext 11.40

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad DWLLW

Rest20.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 58 · 7 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected

W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts
L13 SepH · Atletico Madrid0–31.3 xPts
W7 SepA · Elche3–21.4 xPts
D3 SepH · Celta Vigo0–01.8 xPts

Deportivo La Coruna WWDLD

Rest20.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel519 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 65 · 8 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · +2.0 vs expected

D20 SepH · Real Betis1–11.2 xPts
L16 SepH · Sevilla0–11.6 xPts
D13 SepA · Getafe1–11.3 xPts
W5 SepA · Villarreal3–20.7 xPts
W30 AugH · Valencia3–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Sociedad	Deportivo La Coruna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	20.8La Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep	20.9La Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	519 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 3	0 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Álex Remiro(G)

17Sergio Gómez 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 15Pablo Marín

11Gonçalo Guedes 18Carlos Soler 21Y. Herrera 7Barrenetxea

23A. Zakharyan 24L. Sučić

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Deportivo La Coruna Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13Leo Román(G)

12G. Quagliata 22B. Ede 20J. Giménez 23Ximo Navarro

10Peke 8Diego Villares 21Mario Soriano 11David Mella

32B. Nsongo 19Luismi Cruz

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Sociedad Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals

Attack line −8.3% · Defence line −22.4% of weighted minutes

DEF J. Aramburu Starter 6.57 Def −16.2%
DEF Zubeldia Rotation 6.56 Def −5.0%
ATT O. Óskarsson Rotation 6.81 Att −8.3%
DEF Héctor Fort Rotation 6.14 Def −1.0%
DEF Odriozola Depth 7.00 Def −0.2%

Deportivo La Coruna Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −43.2% · Defence line −5.8% of weighted minutes

ATT P. Aubameyang Core 7.59 Att −28.5%
MID L. Amatucci Starter 6.87 Att −9.1% Def −4.8%
ATT Z. Eddahchouri Rotation 6.83 Att −3.6%
MID Marc Casadó Rotation 6.37 Att −1.8% Def −0.9%
MID Noé Depth 6.68 Att −0.2% Def −0.1%

Total impact vs full squads

Real Sociedad+0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Deportivo La Coruna-0.3 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.33

Deportivo La Coruna · Away 1.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-0
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Real Sociedad	Deportivo La Coruna
Valencia	W 3–2 A	W 3–1 H
Elche	W 3–2 A	D 1–1 H
Real Betis	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	5 of 9 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Real Sociedad	Deportivo La Coruna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	1.43
Conceded per game	1.86	1.14
Match goals	3.14	2.57	2.91
Over 1.5	71%	86%
Over 2.5	71%	29%	56%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	57%	86%	57%
Clean sheets	14%	0%
Failed to score	43%	14%
Games	7	7

	Real Sociedad	Deportivo La Coruna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.43
Conceded per game	2.00	1.14
Match goals	3.40	2.57	2.91
Over 1.5	80%	86%
Over 2.5	70%	29%	56%
Over 3.5	40%	29%
Both teams scored	70%	86%	57%
Clean sheets	10%	0%
Failed to score	30%	14%
Games	10	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Sociedad	Deportivo La Coruna	League
Corners
Corners won	7.29	4.86
Corners conceded	4.29	5.29
Match total	11.58	10.15	9.75
Over 8.5	100% 7/7	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	86% 6/7	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	71% 5/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.43	2.00
Opponent cards	2.86	2.00
Match total	5.29	4.00	4.55
Over 3.5	86% 6/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	86% 6/7	29% 2/7

	Real Sociedad	Deportivo La Coruna	League
Corners
Corners won	6.90	4.00
Corners conceded	3.80	4.90
Match total	10.70	8.90	9.75
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.80
Opponent cards	2.50	2.40
Match total	5.20	4.20	4.55
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 23 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.87league 4.26

Red cards0.09league 0.27

Cards 5+43%league 53%

Fouls26.4league 24.7

Penalties0.30league 0.35

Home wins48%league 45%

Real Sociedad2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.4.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D14 May 26A · Girona1–17
W28 Feb 26A · Mallorca1–02

Deportivo La Coruna

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.