Red Bull Salzburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Red Bull Salzburg35.3%fair odds 2.83
Draw25.3%fair odds 3.95
AC Milan39.3%fair odds 2.54
Expected goals1.47 – 1.56total 3.03
Likeliest score1–111.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AC Milan
Baseline: average Serie A opponent
Attack Uplift
+6%
Expected goals
Baseline1.47Forecast1.56
Conceding Risk
+1%
Expected goals conceded
Baseline1.45Forecast1.47
Clean Sheet
−0.4 pp
Chance of conceding no goals
Baseline23.5%Forecast23.1%
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Red Bull Salzburg ↓ · AC Milan → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Red Bull Salzburg goals, columns AC Milan goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%8.56
- 1–28.6%11.56
- 2–18.1%12.29
- 0–17.0%14.33
- 1–06.5%15.31
- 2–26.3%15.77
- 0–25.9%16.96
- 0–05.4%18.38
- 2–05.2%19.15
- 1–34.5%22.26
Winning margin
6.4%
Red Bull Salzburg by 3+
fair 15.72
10.5%
Red Bull Salzburg by 2
fair 9.50
18.4%
Red Bull Salzburg by 1
fair 5.42
25.3%
Draw
fair 3.95
19.6%
AC Milan by 1
fair 5.10
11.9%
AC Milan by 2
fair 8.41
7.8%
AC Milan by 3+
fair 12.77
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Red Bull Salzburg goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
AC Milan goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg win | 35.3% | 34.8% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.1% | -0.8 pp |
| AC Milan win | 39.3% | 39.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 54.7% | +3.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 61.3% | 58.6% | +2.7 pp |
| Expected goals Red Bull Salzburg | 1.47 | 1.39 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals AC Milan | 1.56 | 1.48 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Red Bull Salzburg win35.3%2.83
- Draw25.3%3.95
- AC Milan win39.3%2.54
- Double chance Red Bull Salzburg or draw60.7%1.65
- Double chance Red Bull Salzburg or AC Milan74.7%1.34
- Double chance AC Milan or draw64.7%1.55
- Draw no bet Red Bull Salzburg47.3%2.11
- Draw no bet AC Milan52.7%1.90
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.581.0%1.23
- Over 2.558.2%1.72
- Over 3.535.8%2.79
- Over 4.518.9%5.29
- Under 1.519.0%5.28
- Under 2.541.8%2.40
- Under 3.564.2%1.56
Both teams to score
- Yes61.3%1.63
- No38.7%2.59
- Yes and over 2.549.6%2.01
- Red Bull Salzburg win and yes19.7%5.07
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- AC Milan win and yes21.7%4.60
Team goals
- Red Bull Salzburg over 0.576.9%1.30
- Red Bull Salzburg over 1.543.1%2.32
- Red Bull Salzburg over 2.518.3%5.47
- AC Milan over 0.579.0%1.27
- AC Milan over 1.546.2%2.17
- AC Milan over 2.520.6%4.85
- Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet21.0%4.75
- AC Milan clean sheet23.1%4.34
- Red Bull Salzburg win to nil15.6%6.41
- AC Milan win to nil17.6%5.67
Handicap
- Red Bull Salzburg −1.516.9%5.92
- Red Bull Salzburg −2.56.4%15.72
- AC Milan +1.583.1%1.20
- AC Milan +2.593.6%1.07
- AC Milan −1.519.7%5.07
- Red Bull Salzburg +1.580.3%1.25
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored18
Favourite won61.1%
Avg chance given to result44.8%
1X2 Brier0.505
Over 2.5 called right61.1%
BTTS called right38.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 39.1% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 6 | 44.6% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 54.9% | 80.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 65.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 18 of 18 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5048 | 0.5646 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.8% | 44.3% |
| Favourite won | 61.1% | 61.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Plzen 0–3 Union St. Gilloise37·24·38
- ✓Besiktas 4–1 Marseille47·23·29
- ✓Real Sociedad 1–2 Bournemouth25·23·53
- ✓Juventus 5–0 NEC Nijmegen68·18·14
- ✗Lillestrom 1–2 Torreense47·24·28
- ✗Celtic 1–3 Ferencvarosi TC42·24·34
- ✓Crystal Palace 4–0 Lech Poznan57·21·22
- ✗OFI 2–0 1899 Hoffenheim21·21·58
- ✓Levski Sofia 0–1 Red Bull Salzburg33·25·42
- ✓Sunderland 1–0 AZ Alkmaar48·24·28
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 18 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.