Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 17:45 Red Bull Arena, Wals-Siezenheim

Red Bull Salzburg 14th · 3 pts · 1 played W

0–4Full time

AC Milan 30th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Red Bull Salzburg. Red Bull Salzburg were without N. Veratschnig and T. Drexler. AC Milan were without S. Chukwueze and A. Saelemaekers. Red Bull Salzburg had 28 days of rest, AC Milan 4 and had to travel 387 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel387 kmRest days28 · 4Matches / 14d0 · 1

Red Bull Salzburg36%

Draw24%

AC Milan40%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.56

Red Bull Salzburg32%

Draw26%

AC Milan42%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

Red Bull Salzburg36%

Draw24%

AC Milan39%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.53

Red Bull Salzburg29%

Draw23%

AC Milan48%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.75

Red Bull Salzburg35%

Draw25%

AC Milan40%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.48

Over 2.5 58% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wals-Siezenheim)

14°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 86%

Referee · RomaniaHoratiu Fesnic

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.44
Matches 9

Team strength

Red Bull Salzburg

AC Milan

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 62

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 66

36 AttackIn forecast 72

29 DefenceIn forecast 69

— Form indexContext 48

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Red Bull Salzburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

AC Milan

Attack+6%

Defense risk+1%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Red Bull Salzburg

AC Milan

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.05 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.50 ShotsContext 13.20

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

33% On target shareContext 36%

8.83 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

67% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.25 OffsidesContext 1.86

9.67 Shots allowedContext 11.10

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.86 BlocksContext 3.22

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

59% Save rateContext 73%

59% PossessionIn forecast 57%

436 PassesContext 530

363 Accurate passesContext 470

83% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.92

9.33 FoulsContext 11.00

8.78 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Red Bull Salzburg W

Rest28 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 62 · 3 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected

W17 SepA · Levski Sofia1–01.5 xPts

AC Milan DDLWD

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel387 km283 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 48 · 6 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

D11 OctA · Sassuolo1–11.6 xPts
W20 SepH · Lecce3–02.3 xPts
L16 SepH · Benfica0–21.0 xPts
D12 SepA · Lazio2–21.3 xPts
D6 SepA · Juventus1–11.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Red Bull Salzburg	AC Milan
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	28UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep	4Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	387 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	283 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Red Bull Salzburg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

52C. Zawieschitzky(G)

31D. Schmid 47V. Zabransky 44K. Boma 39L. Morgalla

15B. Mazurek 32A. Barry

20E. Baidoo 8S. Kitano 35J. Lindstrøm

9H. Tabaković

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 23O. Tomori

33D. Bartesaghi 12A. Rabiot 30A. Jashari 20O. Hutchinson

70A. Cissè 8R. Loftus-Cheek

73F. Camarda

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Red Bull Salzburg Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals

Attack line −9.0% · Defence line −29.5% of weighted minutes

DEF N. Veratschnig Core 7.34 Def −16.4%
DEF T. Drexler Starter 6.68 Def −7.2%
MID S. Diabaté Starter 6.88 Att −5.3% Def −3.4%
ATT D. Redzic Rotation 6.51 Att −3.5%
DEF A. Chase Rotation 6.90 Def −1.2%
DEF Christian Zawieschitzky Rotation 6.78 Def −1.2%

+2 more with impact, 3 without recent minutes (no impact): F. Matijasevic, J. Omoregie, J. Moser

AC Milan Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −31.1% · Defence line −3.9% of weighted minutes

ATT S. Chukwueze Starter 7.14 Att −17.3%
ATT A. Saelemaekers Starter 7.07 Att −13.8%
DEF M. Gabbia Rotation 6.85 Def −3.9%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): P. Terracciano

Total impact vs full squads

Red Bull Salzburg-0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
AC Milan+0.6 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Red Bull Salzburg · Home No home games yet this season.

AC Milan · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Red Bull Salzburg wins1 draws1 AC Milan wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

2 Nov 2022AC Milan4–0Red Bull Salzburg
6 Sep 2022Red Bull Salzburg1–1AC Milan

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Red Bull Salzburg	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	1.00	2.00	3.03
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	61%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Red Bull Salzburg	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.60
Conceded per game	1.20	1.30
Match goals	2.90	2.90	3.03
Over 1.5	60%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	58%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Red Bull Salzburg	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	9.00
Corners conceded	5.00	1.00
Match total	9.00	10.00	10.69
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	5.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	5.00
Match total	6.00	6.00	3.38
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Red Bull Salzburg	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	6.17	3.90
Corners conceded	4.33	3.20
Match total	10.50	7.10	10.69
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	20% 2/10
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	1.10	2.10
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	3.10	4.10	3.38
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Horatiu Fesnic Romania · 9 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.22league 3.28

Red cards0.22league 0.11

Cards 5+44%league 39%

Fouls30.1league 25.2

Penalties0.44league 0.17

Home wins56%league 44%

Red Bull Salzburg

No previous matches with this referee.

AC Milan

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.