Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rio Ave were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rio Ave. Rio Ave had 13.1 days of rest, Alverca 13 and had to travel 274 km.
Away travel274 kmRest days13.1 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Rio Ave43%
Draw29%
Alverca28%
Rio Ave43%
Draw27%
Alverca30%
Rio Ave43%
Draw29%
Alverca28%
Rio Ave36%
Draw30%
Alverca34%
Rio Ave44%
Draw28%
Alverca28%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAnzhony Rodrigues
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 17
Team strength
Rio Ave
Alverca
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
18
AttackIn forecast
38
21
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveAlverca
1.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
59%
Scored inContext
74%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
9.59
ShotsContext
9.33
4.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.64
39%
On target shareContext
36%
6.17
Shots in the boxContext
6.12
60%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.47
OffsidesContext
1.93
15.22
Shots allowedContext
13.56
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.62
4.04
BlocksContext
3.96
3.46
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.12
66%
Save rateContext
66%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
378
PassesContext
356
313
Accurate passesContext
287
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.96
FoulsContext
12.19
14.96
Fouls sufferedContext
13.48
2.44
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
40%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.60
ShotsContext
10.20
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
33%
On target shareContext
28%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
57%
Box shareContext
65%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
2.50
OffsidesContext
—
12.90
Shots allowedContext
14.30
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.00
BlocksContext
3.80
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
61%
Save rateContext
65%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
396
PassesContext
357
330
Accurate passesContext
289
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.60
FoulsContext
11.80
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km599 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alverca
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel274 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 13Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 274 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 599 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
99E. van der Gouw(G)
6N. Abbey
39Gustavo Mancha
32J. Brabec
17M. Vrousai
5A. Ntoi
44T. Nikitscher
18D. Špikić
80O. Pohlmann
7Diogo Bezerra
11Jalen Blesa
Alverca
Confirmed XI
31Matheus Mendes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
12Isaac James
18Lincoln
26Rhaldney
2Zoubdi
10Chiquinho
91Sandro Lima
20Figueiredo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
1.00points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.62
Alverca · Away
0.77points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-7
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 1.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Estoril | W 2–1 AL 0–4 H | L 1–4 A |
| Estrela | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Tondela | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | L 0–3 H |
| Moreirense | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H |
| Arouca | L 0–3 HD 3–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Nacional | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Benfica | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Casa Pia | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 A | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 AL 0–4 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| AVS | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 29 of 78 · 1.12 per game | 28 of 78 · 1.08 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Rio Ave wins1 draws0 Alverca wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 8 Nov 2025Alverca1–1Rio Ave
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.04 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.74 | 2.67 | 2.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 52% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 56% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 26% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Rio Ave | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.80 | 2.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.04 | 4.05 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.54 | 4.37 | |
| Match total | 10.58 | 8.42 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 19/26 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 16/26 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 13/26 | 26% 5/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.59 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.37 | 2.48 | |
| Match total | 4.96 | 4.78 | 5.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 18/27 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 15/27 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Rio Ave | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.34 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.10 | 5.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anzhony Rodrigues Portugal · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.81
Red cards0.12league 0.26
Cards 5+41%league 58%
Fouls27.6league 27.0
Penalties0.41league 0.44
Home wins47%league 42%
Rio Ave1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L19 Sep 25H · FC Porto0–32
Alverca1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L25 Jan 26A · SC Braga0–52
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave27 games · scored 28 · conceded 46
2
3
0-15
5
8
16-30
4
8
31-45
5
8
46-60
7
10
61-75
5
9
76-90
Alverca27 games · scored 27 · conceded 45
2
6
0-15
2
7
16-30
6
9
31-45
3
7
46-60
3
8
61-75
11
8
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 6 · conceded 17
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
