Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rio Ave were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Arouca. Rio Ave had 6.1 days of rest, Arouca 7 and had to travel 63 km.
Away travel63 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Rio Ave40%
Draw28%
Arouca32%
Rio Ave45%
Draw27%
Arouca28%
Rio Ave40%
Draw28%
Arouca32%
Rio Ave34%
Draw28%
Arouca38%
Rio Ave41%
Draw27%
Arouca32%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 17
Team strength
Rio Ave
Arouca
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
18
AttackIn forecast
28
21
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveArouca
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.05
1.84
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.32
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
63%
Scored inContext
63%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
9.00
ShotsContext
9.63
4.24
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
42%
On target shareContext
31%
6.06
Shots in the boxContext
5.72
63%
Box shareContext
56%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.73
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.79
Shots allowedContext
13.42
5.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
4.47
BlocksContext
3.88
3.68
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
65%
Save rateContext
56%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
366
PassesContext
396
303
Accurate passesContext
326
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.57
12.74
FoulsContext
13.47
14.84
Fouls sufferedContext
11.47
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
2.74
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.16
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
50%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.30
ShotsContext
10.60
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
42%
On target shareContext
30%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.44
61%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.86
OffsidesContext
2.33
16.70
Shots allowedContext
12.50
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.60
BlocksContext
4.38
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
59%
Save rateContext
63%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
376
PassesContext
417
315
Accurate passesContext
343
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.63
11.40
FoulsContext
11.90
14.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,410 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Arouca
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel63 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 63 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,410 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
22K. Chamorro(G)
6N. Abbey
63J. Lomboto
23F. Petrasso
77O. Richards
10B. Aguilera
5A. Ntoi
17M. Vrousai
80O. Pohlmann
9Clayton
19A. Papakanellos
Arouca
Confirmed XI
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
25B. Kuipers
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
21T. Fukui
22E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arouca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
1.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.67
Arouca · Away
0.89points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Benfica | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–5 A |
| Casa Pia | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 A | L 1–2 HL 0–6 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| AVS | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Alverca | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Estoril | L 0–4 H | L 3–4 A |
| Estrela | W 2–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Tondela | W 3–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 H | L 0–4 H |
| Moreirense | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| Points | 19 of 54 · 1.06 per game | 16 of 54 · 0.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Rio Ave wins4 draws0 Arouca wins
Goals per game1.43 – 1.00
Over 2.529%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 0%
- 23 Aug 2025Arouca3–3Rio Ave
- 10 Feb 2025Arouca1–1Rio Ave
- 1 Sep 2024Rio Ave1–0Arouca
- 19 Apr 2024Rio Ave1–1Arouca
- 10 Dec 2023Arouca2–2Rio Ave
- 28 Apr 2023Rio Ave1–0Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 1.05 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.84 | 2.32 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.37 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 53% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 37% | 37% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Rio Ave | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.94 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.06 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.28 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 15/18 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 72% 13/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 61% 11/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.53 | 3.05 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.68 | 2.53 | |
| Match total | 5.21 | 5.58 | 5.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 12/19 | 84% 16/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 11/19 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Rio Ave | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.78 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 11.11 | 9.45 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.70 | 5.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.29league 5.01
Red cards0.00league 0.29
Cards 5+35%league 60%
Fouls26.8league 27.2
Penalties0.12league 0.47
Home wins59%league 40%
Rio Ave3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 Sep 25A · Benfica1–12
- D18 Apr 25H · Santa Clara1–11
- L22 Feb 25A · Estoril1–21
Arouca2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Aug 25H · AVS3–12
- W25 Aug 24H · Nacional1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave19 games · scored 22 · conceded 35
2
2
0-15
4
5
16-30
3
7
31-45
3
6
46-60
5
7
61-75
5
8
76-90
Arouca18 games · scored 20 · conceded 39
5
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
11
31-45
5
7
46-60
4
5
61-75
2
8
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 9 · conceded 21
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
4
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
8
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
