Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rio Ave were slight favourites.
Rio Ave were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Rio Ave. Rio Ave had 6.1 days of rest, AVS 6.2 and had to travel.
Rest days6.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Rio Ave59%
Draw25%
AVS16%
Rio Ave58%
Draw24%
AVS19%
Rio Ave59%
Draw25%
AVS16%
Rio Ave52%
Draw28%
AVS20%
Rio Ave60%
Draw24%
AVS16%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Filipe Claudio Carvalho
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.64
- Matches 11
Team strength
Rio Ave
AVS
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
11
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
18
AttackIn forecast
17
21
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveAVS
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.66
1.66
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
62%
Scored inContext
41%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
9.62
ShotsContext
10.03
4.15
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.68
39%
On target shareContext
26%
6.15
Shots in the boxContext
5.39
61%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.47
OffsidesContext
2.05
15.10
Shots allowedContext
14.34
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.24
3.97
BlocksContext
3.43
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
67%
Save rateContext
62%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
378
PassesContext
302
312
Accurate passesContext
224
83%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.59
12.69
FoulsContext
13.55
14.69
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.45
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
0.52
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
60%
Scored inContext
30%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.80
ShotsContext
9.40
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.22
33%
On target shareContext
21%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
4.40
57%
Box shareContext
50%
8%
ConversionContext
5%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.90
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.00
BlocksContext
3.89
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
72%
Save rateContext
73%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
400
PassesContext
277
329
Accurate passesContext
201
82%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.67
12.60
FoulsContext
12.90
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
8.40
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,006 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
AVS
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
AVS |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 6.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,006 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
6N. Abbey
39Gustavo Mancha
32J. Brabec
17M. Vrousai
8Ryan Guilherme
5A. Ntoi
18D. Špikić
80O. Pohlmann
7Diogo Bezerra
11Jalen Blesa
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
12Leonardo Rivas
3Paulo Vitor
42C. Devenish
97Mateus Pivô
8Pedro Lima
70Roni
23Gustavo Mendonça
14Ó. Perea
7Tómané
11B. Akinsola
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AVS+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
0.93points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.64
AVS · Away
0.29points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-10
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 2.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Alverca | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 AL 1–3 H |
| Estoril | W 2–1 AL 0–4 H | W 3–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Estrela | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Tondela | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Moreirense | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H | L 0–4 HD 2–2 A |
| Arouca | L 0–3 HD 3–3 A | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Nacional | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Benfica | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Casa Pia | W 3–1 H | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 A | L 0–6 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Points | 30 of 84 · 1.07 per game | 12 of 84 · 0.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Rio Ave wins1 draws1 AVS wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 6 Dec 2025AVS1–2Rio Ave
- 16 Feb 2025Rio Ave1–1AVS
- 14 Sep 2024AVS1–0Rio Ave
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 0.66 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.66 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.72 | 2.79 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 59% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 38% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 59% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Rio Ave | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.00 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 3.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.32 | 5.64 | |
| Match total | 10.46 | 9.56 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 20/28 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 61% 17/28 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 14/28 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.59 | 2.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.31 | 2.24 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.55 | 5.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 66% 19/29 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 55% 16/29 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Rio Ave | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.22 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.10 | 5.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho Portugal · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.55league 4.81
Red cards0.09league 0.25
Cards 5+27%league 57%
Fouls28.5league 26.9
Penalties0.64league 0.43
Home wins18%league 41%
Rio Ave1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 Aug 25A · Arouca3–32
AVS1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Feb 26H · Estrela0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave29 games · scored 31 · conceded 48
2
4
0-15
5
9
16-30
4
8
31-45
7
8
46-60
8
10
61-75
5
9
76-90
AVS29 games · scored 19 · conceded 62
1
10
0-15
2
9
16-30
4
11
31-45
3
12
46-60
3
12
61-75
6
8
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 5 · conceded 15
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
