Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 26). Rio Ave had 13.2 days of rest, Benfica 14.1 and had to travel 294 km.
Away travel294 kmRest days13.2 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Rio Ave14%
Draw22%
Benfica64%
Rio Ave14%
Draw21%
Benfica65%
Rio Ave14%
Draw22%
Benfica64%
Rio Ave10%
Draw19%
Benfica71%
Rio Ave14%
Draw21%
Benfica65%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 16
Team strength
Rio Ave
Benfica
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
18
AttackIn forecast
81
21
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBenfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveBenfica
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.12
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.65
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
71%
Scored inContext
94%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
47%
9.00
ShotsContext
15.12
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.59
43%
On target shareContext
37%
6.07
Shots in the boxContext
9.71
63%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.59
Shots allowedContext
8.47
5.59
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.19
4.65
BlocksContext
2.29
3.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
68%
Save rateContext
82%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
367
PassesContext
489
303
Accurate passesContext
418
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.02
13.18
FoulsContext
11.88
15.12
Fouls sufferedContext
14.53
2.53
Yellow cardsContext
2.12
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.60
ShotsContext
15.50
4.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
43%
On target shareContext
34%
6.29
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
62%
Box shareContext
65%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.13
15.70
Shots allowedContext
7.30
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.60
4.80
BlocksContext
2.20
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
65%
Save rateContext
77%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
372
PassesContext
462
310
Accurate passesContext
390
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.90
FoulsContext
9.90
15.10
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Benfica
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel294 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
Benfica |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan | 14.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 294 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
6N. Abbey
32J. Brabec
23F. Petrasso
3N. Athanasiou
10B. Aguilera
5A. Ntoi
20João Tomé
18D. Špikić
11André Luiz
9Clayton
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
44Tomás Araújo
17A. Dedić
8F. Aursnes
18L. Barreiro
21A. Schjelderup
10H. Sudakov
25G. Prestianni
14V. Pavlidis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Benfica+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
1.13points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.63
Benfica · Away
2.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-0
- Scored
- 2.13
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| AVS | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Alverca | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Estoril | L 0–4 H | W 3–1 H |
| Estrela | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Tondela | W 3–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 H | D 0–0 A |
| Moreirense | L 1–3 A | W 4–0 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Arouca | D 3–3 A | W 5–0 H |
| Nacional | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 19 of 48 · 1.19 per game | 38 of 48 · 2.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Rio Ave wins2 draws5 Benfica wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.71
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets0% · 29%
- 23 Sep 2025Benfica1–1Rio Ave
- 16 Mar 2025Rio Ave2–3Benfica
- 27 Oct 2024Benfica5–0Rio Ave
- 17 May 2024Rio Ave1–1Benfica
- 14 Jan 2024Benfica4–1Rio Ave
- 2 Apr 2023Rio Ave0–1Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 2.12 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 0.65 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.76 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 65% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 53% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 47% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 6% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Rio Ave | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.94 | 2.69 | |
| Match total | 10.94 | 8.44 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 13/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% 11/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 10/16 | 19% 3/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.76 | 2.24 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 2.82 | |
| Match total | 5.47 | 5.06 | 5.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 12/17 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 65% 11/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Rio Ave | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.22 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.55 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.10 | 5.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.13league 5.04
Red cards0.25league 0.29
Cards 5+56%league 59%
Fouls29.3league 27.2
Penalties0.38league 0.44
Home wins25%league 39%
Rio Ave2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Sep 25A · Famalicao0–04
- D17 Aug 25H · Nacional1–12
BenficaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave17 games · scored 22 · conceded 29
2
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
5
6
61-75
5
7
76-90
Benfica16 games · scored 31 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
5
16-30
8
3
31-45
7
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
6
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
