Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 26). Rio Ave had 7 days of rest, Guimaraes 4.9 and had to travel 39 km.
Away travel39 kmRest days7 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Rio Ave33%
Draw28%
Guimaraes39%
Rio Ave34%
Draw27%
Guimaraes39%
Rio Ave33%
Draw28%
Guimaraes39%
Rio Ave27%
Draw27%
Guimaraes46%
Rio Ave34%
Draw27%
Guimaraes39%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalPedro Ramalho
- Cards per match 6.4
- Penalties per match 0.58
- Matches 12
Team strength
Rio Ave
Guimaraes
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
18
AttackIn forecast
28
21
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGuimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveGuimaraes
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.08
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
77%
Scored inContext
54%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
9.69
ShotsContext
12.08
4.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.54
42%
On target shareContext
29%
6.55
Shots in the boxContext
6.23
63%
Box shareContext
53%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.45
15.77
Shots allowedContext
12.23
5.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.54
4.38
BlocksContext
3.45
3.77
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.46
70%
Save rateContext
76%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
371
PassesContext
357
306
Accurate passesContext
291
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.77
FoulsContext
13.38
14.77
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
2.69
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.80
ShotsContext
12.20
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
40%
On target shareContext
30%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
62%
Box shareContext
55%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.38
16.00
Shots allowedContext
12.10
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.70
BlocksContext
3.88
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
71%
Save rateContext
81%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
374
PassesContext
347
311
Accurate passesContext
282
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.84
13.80
FoulsContext
13.30
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Guimaraes
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel39 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
Guimaraes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 39 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 10.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
6N. Abbey
4J. Panzo
23F. Petrasso
3N. Athanasiou
10B. Aguilera
44T. Nikitscher
17M. Vrousai
80O. Pohlmann
9Clayton
11André Luiz
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
25Juan Castillo(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
26R. Abascal
4Óscar Rivas
2Miguel Maga
48N. Saviolo
30Gonçalo Nogueira
16Beni
18Telmo Arcanjo
19O. Camara
90A. Ndoye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
1.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-2
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.83
Guimaraes · Away
1.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-4
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| AVS | W 2–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Alverca | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Estoril | L 0–4 H | W 3–2 H |
| Estrela | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Tondela | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Benfica | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| Moreirense | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Arouca | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 15 of 36 · 1.25 per game | 17 of 36 · 1.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Rio Ave wins2 draws3 Guimaraes wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.33
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets17% · 67%
- 27 Apr 2025Guimaraes3–0Rio Ave
- 16 Dec 2024Rio Ave2–2Guimaraes
- 4 May 2024Rio Ave2–1Guimaraes
- 23 Dec 2023Guimaraes1–0Rio Ave
- 14 May 2023Rio Ave0–1Guimaraes
- 7 Jan 2023Guimaraes0–0Rio Ave
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 1.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 2.92 | 2.38 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 38% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 31% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 46% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Rio Ave | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.10 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.92 | 4.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.92 | 3.38 | |
| Match total | 10.84 | 7.84 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 9/12 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 8/12 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% 7/12 | 15% 2/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.85 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.85 | 3.08 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 5.46 | 5.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 10/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 69% 9/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Rio Ave | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.44 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 11.77 | 7.50 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 5.30 | 5.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Pedro Ramalho Portugal · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.25league 5.19
Red cards0.17league 0.29
Cards 5+75%league 64%
Fouls29.1league 27.6
Penalties0.58league 0.47
Home wins25%league 35%
Rio Ave1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W5 May 25H · Estrela2–04
Guimaraes1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W16 Aug 25H · Estoril3–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave13 games · scored 17 · conceded 21
2
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
5
76-90
Guimaraes13 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
