Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 20). Rio Ave had 8.1 days of rest, Moreirense 9.2 and had to travel 34 km.
Away travel34 kmRest days8.1 · 9.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Rio Ave35%
Draw29%
Moreirense36%
Rio Ave36%
Draw27%
Moreirense37%
Rio Ave35%
Draw29%
Moreirense36%
Rio Ave29%
Draw29%
Moreirense42%
Rio Ave36%
Draw28%
Moreirense36%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalRicardo Baixinho
- Cards per match 7.2
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 35
Team strength
Rio Ave
Moreirense
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
18
AttackIn forecast
17
21
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveMoreirense
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.95
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
57%
Scored inContext
76%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.71
ShotsContext
9.00
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.55
40%
On target shareContext
38%
5.72
Shots in the boxContext
5.19
62%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.75
16.71
Shots allowedContext
12.38
5.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.35
4.43
BlocksContext
3.30
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.85
65%
Save rateContext
66%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
371
PassesContext
421
309
Accurate passesContext
351
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.38
FoulsContext
13.62
14.81
Fouls sufferedContext
15.10
2.24
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
40%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.30
ShotsContext
9.00
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
40%
On target shareContext
42%
5.63
Shots in the boxContext
4.80
62%
Box shareContext
54%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
3.33
OffsidesContext
1.75
16.20
Shots allowedContext
11.10
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
3.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
60%
Save rateContext
58%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
381
PassesContext
456
322
Accurate passesContext
384
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.65
10.70
FoulsContext
13.00
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
16.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km69 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Moreirense
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel34 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 9.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 34 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 69 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
99E. van der Gouw(G)
77O. Richards
39Gustavo Mancha
32J. Brabec
17M. Vrousai
5A. Ntoi
44T. Nikitscher
18D. Špikić
11Jalen Blesa
7Diogo Bezerra
9Tamble Monteiro
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
8M. Stjepanović
21Rodri Alonso
10Kiko Bondoso
11Alan
2Diogo Travassos
99Maranhão
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
0.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.80
Moreirense · Away
1.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 1.45
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Arouca | L 0–3 HD 3–3 A | W 2–0 A |
| Nacional | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Benfica | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–4 H |
| Casa Pia | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 A | L 0–3 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| AVS | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Alverca | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Estoril | L 0–4 H | D 3–3 A |
| Estrela | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Tondela | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 20 of 60 · 1.00 per game | 27 of 60 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Rio Ave wins1 draws2 Moreirense wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.80
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 40%
- 13 Sep 2025Moreirense3–1Rio Ave
- 13 Apr 2025Moreirense0–2Rio Ave
- 30 Nov 2024Rio Ave3–2Moreirense
- 2 Mar 2024Moreirense0–0Rio Ave
- 1 Oct 2023Rio Ave0–4Moreirense
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.95 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.67 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 57% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 48% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 24% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Rio Ave | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 4.32 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 4.05 | |
| Match total | 10.75 | 8.37 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 16/20 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 13/20 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 11/20 | 5% 1/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 2.81 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.52 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 4.95 | 4.86 | 5.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 12/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 52% 11/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Rio Ave | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.00 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.80 | 5.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo Baixinho Portugal · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.69league 4.93
Red cards0.51league 0.28
Cards 5+80%league 59%
Fouls30.9league 26.9
Penalties0.37league 0.44
Home wins43%league 42%
Rio Ave4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.4.3 · 4.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W4 May 24H · Guimaraes2–14
- W13 Aug 23H · Chaves2–03
- W28 Apr 23H · Arouca1–05
- L14 Jan 23H · Pacos Ferreira0–15
Moreirense4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 4.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W16 Mar 25H · Boavista1–04
- W8 Nov 24H · GIL Vicente3–22
- D7 Apr 24H · Estrela2–23
- L8 Jan 24H · Casa Pia1–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave21 games · scored 22 · conceded 41
2
3
0-15
4
5
16-30
3
8
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
9
61-75
5
9
76-90
Moreirense21 games · scored 27 · conceded 29
6
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
6
7
46-60
7
4
61-75
5
9
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 8 · conceded 22
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
