Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rio Ave were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Rio Ave had 22 days of rest, Santa Clara 21.8 and had to travel 1,503 km.
Away travel1,503 kmRest days22 · 21.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Rio Ave43%
Draw28%
Santa Clara29%
Rio Ave44%
Draw27%
Santa Clara29%
Rio Ave43%
Draw28%
Santa Clara29%
Rio Ave36%
Draw28%
Santa Clara35%
Rio Ave44%
Draw27%
Santa Clara29%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMarcio Torres
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Rio Ave
Santa Clara
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
18
AttackIn forecast
29
21
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSanta Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveSanta Clara
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.82
1.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
73%
Scored inContext
64%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
9.09
ShotsContext
11.64
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.73
41%
On target shareContext
32%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.27
61%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.13
17.18
Shots allowedContext
10.27
5.64
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.82
BlocksContext
2.14
3.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
69%
Save rateContext
74%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
361
PassesContext
380
297
Accurate passesContext
309
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.91
FoulsContext
12.73
14.64
Fouls sufferedContext
15.91
2.45
Yellow cardsContext
2.91
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.20
ShotsContext
12.11
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
40%
On target shareContext
33%
5.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
63%
Box shareContext
60%
16%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.14
17.60
Shots allowedContext
11.33
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
4.80
BlocksContext
2.33
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
68%
Save rateContext
76%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
355
PassesContext
367
290
Accurate passesContext
294
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.85
14.00
FoulsContext
12.00
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
15.33
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Santa Clara
Rest21.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,503 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
Santa Clara |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 21.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,503 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
6N. Abbey
4J. Panzo
23F. Petrasso
3N. Athanasiou
10B. Aguilera
5A. Ntoi
17M. Vrousai
80O. Pohlmann
9Clayton
11André Luiz
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
21F. Ferrão Venâncio
13Luís Rocha
23Sidney Lima
64Paulo Victor
35Serginho
6Adriano
42Lucas Soares
11Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
29Wendel
8Pedro Ferreira
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
1.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.00
Santa Clara · Away
0.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Estoril | L 0–4 H | W 1–0 A |
| Estrela | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Benfica | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Moreirense | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 9 of 21 · 1.29 per game | 8 of 21 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Rio Ave wins1 draws1 Santa Clara wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 18 Apr 2025Rio Ave1–1Santa Clara
- 7 Dec 2024Santa Clara1–0Rio Ave
- 17 Mar 2023Santa Clara0–2Rio Ave
- 2 Oct 2022Rio Ave1–0Santa Clara
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 0.82 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.73 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 45% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 45% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 36% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Rio Ave | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.90 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 5.71 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.71 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.64 | 3.18 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.55 | 3.45 | |
| Match total | 5.19 | 6.63 | 5.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 7/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Rio Ave | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.67 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.50 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 6.60 | 5.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marcio Torres Portugal · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 5.19
Red cards0.50league 0.28
Cards 5+50%league 65%
Fouls25.0league 27.6
Penalties1.00league 0.48
Home wins100%league 35%
Rio Ave1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Sep 25A · Moreirense1–30
Santa ClaraNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave11 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
5
76-90
Santa Clara11 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
