Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rio Ave. Rio Ave had 8 days of rest, Sporting CP 7 and had to travel 294 km.
Away travel294 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Rio Ave16%
Draw22%
Sporting CP62%
Rio Ave12%
Draw19%
Sporting CP69%
Rio Ave16%
Draw22%
Sporting CP62%
Rio Ave12%
Draw19%
Sporting CP69%
Rio Ave16%
Draw22%
Sporting CP62%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves
- Cards per match 5.9
- Penalties per match 0.53
- Matches 19
Team strength
Rio Ave
Sporting CP
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
18
AttackIn forecast
75
21
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveSporting CP
1.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.56
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.72
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
2.04
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.74
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
59%
Scored inContext
100%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
10.03
ShotsContext
17.19
4.21
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.66
38%
On target shareContext
39%
6.48
Shots in the boxContext
11.59
62%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.05
14.78
Shots allowedContext
8.41
4.97
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.13
3.88
BlocksContext
2.54
3.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.61
67%
Save rateContext
79%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
379
PassesContext
534
313
Accurate passesContext
469
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.08
12.44
FoulsContext
12.19
14.19
Fouls sufferedContext
13.47
2.41
Yellow cardsContext
2.16
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
60%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.10
ShotsContext
16.50
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
35%
On target shareContext
40%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.20
63%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.70
Shots allowedContext
10.40
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.90
BlocksContext
2.67
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
73%
Save rateContext
77%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
383
PassesContext
558
308
Accurate passesContext
491
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.03
12.10
FoulsContext
11.80
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sporting CP
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel294 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 May | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 294 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
6N. Abbey
39Gustavo Mancha
23F. Petrasso
17M. Vrousai
8Ryan Guilherme
44T. Nikitscher
18D. Špikić
11Jalen Blesa
7Diogo Bezerra
9Tamble Monteiro
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
26O. Diomande
72Eduardo Quaresma
5H. Morita
23Daniel Bragança
8Pote
17Trincão
31Luis Guilherme
97L. Suárez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
0.94points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-6-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.56
Sporting CP · Away
2.38points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 11-5-0
- Scored
- 2.13
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Guimaraes | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | W 5–1 HW 4–1 A |
| AVS | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AW 6–0 H |
| Santa Clara | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | W 4–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Alverca | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Estoril | W 2–1 AL 0–4 H | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Estrela | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Tondela | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Moreirense | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Arouca | L 0–3 HD 3–3 A | W 2–1 AW 6–0 H |
| Nacional | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Benfica | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Casa Pia | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 35 of 93 · 1.13 per game | 73 of 93 · 2.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Rio Ave wins1 draws6 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game0.57 – 2.71
Over 2.571%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets0% · 71%
- 28 Dec 2025Sporting CP4–0Rio Ave
- 18 Jan 2025Rio Ave0–3Sporting CP
- 9 Aug 2024Sporting CP3–1Rio Ave
- 25 Feb 2024Rio Ave3–3Sporting CP
- 25 Sep 2023Sporting CP2–0Rio Ave
- 6 Feb 2023Rio Ave0–1Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.03 | 2.56 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 0.72 | |
| Match goals | 2.66 | 3.28 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 69% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 56% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 0% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Rio Ave | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.70 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 6.32 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.32 | 3.39 | |
| Match total | 10.61 | 9.71 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 22/31 | 71% 20/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 61% 19/31 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 16/31 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.53 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.34 | 2.78 | |
| Match total | 4.87 | 5.03 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 20/32 | 59% 19/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 17/32 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Rio Ave | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 10.89 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.80 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.11league 4.83
Red cards0.74league 0.24
Cards 5+63%league 58%
Fouls25.3league 26.8
Penalties0.53league 0.43
Home wins26%league 41%
Rio AveNo previous matches with this referee.
Sporting CP1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 7.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W8 Nov 25A · Santa Clara2–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave32 games · scored 33 · conceded 52
2
4
0-15
6
9
16-30
4
9
31-45
7
8
46-60
8
12
61-75
6
10
76-90
Sporting CP32 games · scored 82 · conceded 23
6
3
0-15
10
3
16-30
18
1
31-45
13
2
46-60
15
3
61-75
20
11
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
31-45
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 23 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
6
1
61-75
6
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
