Rio Ave
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Rio Ave15.6%fair odds 6.41
Draw22.4%fair odds 4.47
Sporting CP62.0%fair odds 1.61
Expected goals0.87 – 1.95total 2.82
Likeliest score0–211.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sporting CP
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Rio Ave ↓ · Sporting CP → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Rio Ave goals, columns Sporting CP goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.3%8.84
- 0–111.1%9.03
- 1–110.7%9.38
- 1–29.9%10.14
- 0–37.3%13.62
- 0–06.5%15.39
- 1–36.4%15.62
- 1–04.7%21.44
- 2–14.4%22.64
- 2–24.3%23.25
Winning margin
1.2%
Rio Ave by 3+
fair 81.30
3.9%
Rio Ave by 2
fair 25.92
10.5%
Rio Ave by 1
fair 9.50
22.4%
Draw
fair 4.47
24.2%
Sporting CP by 1
fair 4.14
19.2%
Sporting CP by 2
fair 5.20
18.6%
Sporting CP by 3+
fair 5.37
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Rio Ave goals
42%0
36%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
Sporting CP goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
13%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave win | 15.6% | 16.0% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 22.4% | 22.2% | +0.2 pp |
| Sporting CP win | 62.0% | 61.9% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 55.0% | -1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.4% | 51.8% | -1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Rio Ave | 0.87 | 0.90 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Sporting CP | 1.95 | 1.98 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Rio Ave win15.6%6.41
- Draw22.4%4.47
- Sporting CP win62.0%1.61
- Double chance Rio Ave or draw38.0%2.63
- Double chance Rio Ave or Sporting CP77.6%1.29
- Double chance Sporting CP or draw84.4%1.18
- Draw no bet Rio Ave20.1%4.97
- Draw no bet Sporting CP79.9%1.25
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.577.8%1.29
- Over 2.553.5%1.87
- Over 3.531.2%3.20
- Over 4.515.5%6.43
- Under 1.522.2%4.50
- Under 2.546.5%2.15
- Under 3.568.8%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes50.4%1.98
- No49.6%2.02
- Yes and over 2.539.8%2.51
- Rio Ave win and yes7.8%12.74
- Draw and yes15.9%6.30
- Sporting CP win and yes26.7%3.74
Team goals
- Rio Ave over 0.558.2%1.72
- Rio Ave over 1.521.7%4.60
- Rio Ave over 2.55.8%17.14
- Sporting CP over 0.585.7%1.17
- Sporting CP over 1.558.0%1.73
- Sporting CP over 2.530.9%3.23
- Rio Ave clean sheet14.3%7.01
- Sporting CP clean sheet41.8%2.39
- Rio Ave win to nil7.8%12.88
- Sporting CP win to nil35.3%2.83
Handicap
- Rio Ave −1.55.1%19.66
- Rio Ave −2.51.2%81.30
- Sporting CP +1.594.9%1.05
- Sporting CP +2.598.8%1.01
- Sporting CP −1.537.9%2.64
- Rio Ave +1.562.1%1.61
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored290
Favourite won57.2%
Avg chance given to result43.7%
1X2 Brier0.547
Over 2.5 called right56.2%
BTTS called right51.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 54 | 37.6% | 42.6% |
| 40–50% | 93 | 44.8% | 44.1% |
| 50–60% | 59 | 54.6% | 57.6% |
| 60–70% | 41 | 65.0% | 78.0% |
| 70–80% | 33 | 75.2% | 81.8% |
| 80%+ | 10 | 83.9% | 90.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 233 of 290 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5325 | 0.5247 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.6% | 46.2% |
| Favourite won | 60.5% | 59.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 233 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Alverca 1–1 Estoril47·28·25
- ✗AVS 3–1 FC Porto11·21·68
- ✓Sporting CP 5–1 Guimaraes63·22·15
- ✗Rio Ave 0–0 GIL Vicente35·28·37
- ✗SC Braga 1–1 Estoril63·22·14
- ✗Casa Pia 0–1 Tondela44·29·27
- ✓FC Porto 1–0 Alverca72·18·9
- ✗Famalicao 2–2 Benfica27·27·46
- ✗Arouca 2–2 Santa Clara44·29·27
- ✗Nacional 1–2 AVS54·26·20
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 290 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.