Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rio Ave were slight favourites.
Rio Ave were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 19). Rio Ave had 6.9 days of rest, Tondela 8 and had to travel 108 km.
Away travel108 kmRest days6.9 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Rio Ave48%
Draw27%
Tondela25%
Rio Ave49%
Draw26%
Tondela25%
Rio Ave48%
Draw27%
Tondela25%
Rio Ave41%
Draw28%
Tondela31%
Rio Ave49%
Draw26%
Tondela25%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 67
Team strength
Rio Ave
Tondela
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
18
AttackIn forecast
16
21
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveTondela
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.57
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.67
71%
Scored inContext
29%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
9.57
ShotsContext
11.86
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.43
42%
On target shareContext
37%
5.86
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
64%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
5%
2.67
OffsidesContext
3.43
17.86
Shots allowedContext
12.43
6.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.29
4.43
BlocksContext
3.17
4.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.86
72%
Save rateContext
73%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
359
PassesContext
318
292
Accurate passesContext
256
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.57
FoulsContext
14.14
15.14
Fouls sufferedContext
12.29
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.57
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.67
80%
Scored inContext
29%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
10.30
ShotsContext
11.86
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.43
42%
On target shareContext
37%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
67%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
5%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.43
15.40
Shots allowedContext
12.43
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.29
4.00
BlocksContext
3.17
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.86
71%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
350
PassesContext
318
284
Accurate passesContext
256
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.50
FoulsContext
14.14
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.29
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km628 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tondela
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel108 km3,091 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
Tondela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 10 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 108 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 628 km | 3,091 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.1 | 21.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
4J. Panzo
32J. Brabec
23F. Petrasso
3N. Athanasiou
10B. Aguilera
5A. Ntoi
17M. Vrousai
18D. Špikić
9Clayton
11André Luiz
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
48Tiago Manso
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
2Bebeto
15S. Sithole
32Juan Rodríguez
17Ivan Cavaleiro
16Rony Lopes
7Pedro Henryque
29J. Siebatcheu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tondela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Tondela · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Benfica | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 0.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.14 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 29% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 71% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Rio Ave | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 0.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.14 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 29% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 71% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.86 | 5.43 | |
| Match total | 10.86 | 8.72 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.57 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 4.71 | 4.57 | 5.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Rio Ave | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.90 | 5.43 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.72 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.57 | 5.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 67 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.99league 5.12
Red cards0.40league 0.26
Cards 5+55%league 65%
Fouls28.1league 27.8
Penalties0.34league 0.43
Home wins60%league 36%
Rio Ave5 with this referee
Record0-3-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D16 Dec 24H · Guimaraes2–22
- D2 Nov 24H · Casa Pia2–23
- L14 Sep 24A · AVS0–12
- D3 Feb 24A · FC Porto0–05
- L23 Dec 23A · Guimaraes0–13
TondelaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave7 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Tondela7 games · scored 4 · conceded 11
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
Tondela7 games · scored 4 · conceded 11
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
