Süper Lig Gameweek 31 Sun, May 2 · 13:00 Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize
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Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel970 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Rizespor—%
Draw—%
Galatasaray—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Rize)

Forecast from 17 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Rizespor and Galatasaray. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

RizesporGalatasaray
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
22 Current StrengthIn forecast 62
22 AttackIn forecast 57
35 DefenceIn forecast 55
17 Form indexContext 59
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rizespor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Galatasaray

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

RizesporGalatasaray
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.13
1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38
1.27 xGVia Att/Def 2.29
0.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93
-0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.16
63% Scored inContext 88%
25% Clean sheetsContext 38%
15.00 ShotsContext 22.13
4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.38
32% On target shareContext 33%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 15.13
57% Box shareContext 69%
7% ConversionContext 10%
1.67 OffsidesContext 2.83
13.50 Shots allowedContext 10.75
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.86
4.43 BlocksContext 3.71
3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57
74% Save rateContext 78%
54% PossessionIn forecast 60%
434 PassesContext 475
367 Accurate passesContext 411
85% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.83 Team ratingContext 7.02
10.25 FoulsContext 11.75
12.25 Fouls sufferedContext 11.63
1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.63
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.25
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.97
1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22
-0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.07
60% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
15.50 ShotsContext 19.20
4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
30% On target shareContext 34%
8.80 Shots in the boxContext 13.20
59% Box shareContext 69%
7% ConversionContext 10%
1.71 OffsidesContext 3.43
14.10 Shots allowedContext 11.50
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.78
4.44 BlocksContext 3.56
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78
71% Save rateContext 64%
54% PossessionIn forecast 57%
433 PassesContext 460
367 Accurate passesContext 397
85% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.81 Team ratingContext 6.86
9.90 FoulsContext 11.60
11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rizespor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected
  • L16 OctA · Çorum FK1–21.0 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Fenerbahce0–30.9 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Goztepe2–21.3 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Eyüpspor2–01.5 xPts
  • L7 SepH · Alanyaspor0–11.8 xPts
Galatasaray
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel970 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Genclerbirligi1–02.2 xPts
  • L13 OctH · Barcelona1–40.7 xPts
  • W9 OctH · Kasimpasa3–12.3 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Trabzonspor0–41.9 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Kocaelispor1–02.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Rizespor Galatasaray
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 25 Apr7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 25 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km970 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,940 km1,238 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rizespor Last XI · not confirmed
4-1-4-1 · vs Çorum FK (A) 1–2, 16 Oct
75Y. Fofana(G)
17Z. Ariss 93M. Sagnan 21S. Bakayoko 54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
7V. Mihăilă 20Q. Laçi 10I. Olawoyin 11A. Awokoya-Mebude
9A. Sowe
Galatasaray Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Genclerbirligi (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1U. Çakır(G)
17E. Elmalı 42A. Bardakcı 6D. Sánchez 7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara 99M. Lemina
53B. Yılmaz 83A. Batrakov 10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Rizespor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Galatasaray Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Rizespor · Home 0.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.00
Conceded
2.00
Galatasaray · Away 2.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Rizespor wins0 draws6 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game0.67 – 3.33 Over 2.583% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 8 Feb 2026Rizespor0–3Galatasaray
  • 30 Aug 2025Galatasaray3–1Rizespor
  • 17 Feb 2025Rizespor1–2Galatasaray
  • 14 Sep 2024Galatasaray5–0Rizespor
  • 8 Mar 2024Galatasaray6–2Rizespor
  • 28 Oct 2023Rizespor0–1Galatasaray

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goal timing

Rizespor8 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1 2 0-15
1 16-30
2 2 31-45
46-60
1 2 61-75
3 5 76-90
Galatasaray8 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
1 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 4 61-75
6 2 76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1 2 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
1 46-60
1 3 61-75
3 6 76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 19 · conceded 18
2 1 0-15
3 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
2 4 46-60
3 6 61-75
6 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.