Sabah FA
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sabah FA16.6%fair odds 6.03
Draw20.9%fair odds 4.79
Borussia Dortmund62.5%fair odds 1.60
Expected goals1.03 – 2.15total 3.18
Likeliest score1–29.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Dortmund
Baseline: average Bundesliga opponent
Attack Uplift
+27%
Expected goals
Baseline1.69Forecast2.15
Conceding Risk
−26%
Expected goals conceded
Baseline1.39Forecast1.03
Clean Sheet
+11.0 pp
Chance of conceding no goals
Baseline24.8%Forecast35.8%
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sabah FA ↓ · Borussia Dortmund → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sabah FA goals, columns Borussia Dortmund goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–29.9%10.10
- 1–19.7%10.32
- 0–29.6%10.37
- 0–18.5%11.80
- 1–37.1%14.09
- 0–36.9%14.47
- 2–25.1%19.67
- 2–14.7%21.16
- 0–04.7%21.49
- 1–43.8%26.19
Winning margin
1.6%
Sabah FA by 3+
fair 61.16
4.3%
Sabah FA by 2
fair 23.07
10.6%
Sabah FA by 1
fair 9.42
20.9%
Draw
fair 4.79
22.8%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.39
19.0%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 5.26
20.8%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 4.82
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Sabah FA goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
Borussia Dortmund goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah FA win | 16.6% | 16.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 20.9% | 21.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 62.5% | 61.9% | +0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.6% | 61.1% | +0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.2% | 57.2% | +0.1 pp |
| Expected goals Sabah FA | 1.03 | 1.03 | -0.00 |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 2.15 | 2.13 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sabah FA win16.6%6.03
- Draw20.9%4.79
- Borussia Dortmund win62.5%1.60
- Double chance Sabah FA or draw37.5%2.67
- Double chance Sabah FA or Borussia Dortmund79.1%1.26
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw83.4%1.20
- Draw no bet Sabah FA21.0%4.77
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund79.0%1.27
Goals
- Over 0.595.3%1.05
- Over 1.583.1%1.20
- Over 2.561.6%1.62
- Over 3.539.3%2.55
- Over 4.521.6%4.64
- Under 1.516.9%5.91
- Under 2.538.4%2.60
- Under 3.560.7%1.65
Both teams to score
- Yes57.2%1.75
- No42.8%2.34
- Yes and over 2.547.5%2.10
- Sabah FA win and yes9.6%10.41
- Draw and yes16.2%6.17
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes31.4%3.19
Team goals
- Sabah FA over 0.564.2%1.56
- Sabah FA over 1.527.4%3.65
- Sabah FA over 2.58.5%11.72
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.588.4%1.13
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.563.3%1.58
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.536.4%2.75
- Sabah FA clean sheet11.6%8.60
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet35.8%2.79
- Sabah FA win to nil7.0%14.33
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil31.2%3.21
Handicap
- Sabah FA −1.56.0%16.75
- Sabah FA −2.51.6%61.16
- Borussia Dortmund +1.594.0%1.06
- Borussia Dortmund +2.598.4%1.02
- Borussia Dortmund −1.539.8%2.51
- Sabah FA +1.560.2%1.66
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored35
Favourite won71.4%
Avg chance given to result49.9%
1X2 Brier0.462
Over 2.5 called right74.3%
BTTS called right62.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 39.6% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 45.7% | 69.2% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 55.5% | 77.8% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.7% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 85.0% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 35 of 35 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4618 | 0.4614 |
| Avg chance given to result | 49.9% | 50.9% |
| Favourite won | 71.4% | 65.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 16 of 35 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.