UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 Tue, Oct 20 · 17:45 Bank Respublika Arena, Masazir
Sabah FA 22nd · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Borussia Dortmund 18th · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites.

Borussia Dortmund are the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sabah FA. Sabah FA have 7 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 3.1 and have to travel 3,449 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel3,449 kmRest days7 · 3.1Matches / 14d1 · 3
Sabah FA17%
Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund63%
Expected goals 1.03 – 2.15
Sabah FA14%
Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund65%
Expected goals 0.86 – 2.09
Sabah FA16%
Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund63%
Expected goals 1.02 – 2.16
Sabah FA12%
Draw18%
Borussia Dortmund70%
Expected goals 0.92 – 2.41
Sabah FA17%
Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund62%
Expected goals 1.03 – 2.13
Over 2.5 62% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–2
EloLambda forecast, updated 44 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Masazir)
18°COvercast
  • Precipitation 3%
  • Wind 16 km/h
  • Humidity 80%
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
  • Cards per match 3.8
  • Penalties per match 0.34
  • Matches 50

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Sabah FA and Borussia Dortmund. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Sabah FABorussia Dortmund
26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 81
26 Current StrengthIn forecast 80
30 AttackIn forecast 69
27 DefenceIn forecast 80
— Form indexContext 61
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sabah FA

Attack—
Defense risk—

Borussia Dortmund

Attack+27%
Defense risk−26%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sabah FABorussia Dortmund
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
— xGVia Att/Def 1.81
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27
— Goals minus xGContext -0.31
50% Scored inContext 50%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.50 ShotsContext 13.50
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
26% On target shareContext 37%
7.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
62% Box shareContext 58%
9% ConversionContext 11%
— OffsidesContext 2.00
19.50 Shots allowedContext 12.00
9.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
5.50 BlocksContext 3.00
5.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
61% Save rateContext 78%
44% PossessionIn forecast 52%
398 PassesContext 549
322 Accurate passesContext 483
81% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.73 Team ratingContext 6.78
14.00 FoulsContext 11.50
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
— xGVia Att/Def 1.85
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
— Goals minus xGContext +0.05
90% Scored inContext 80%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
17.14 ShotsContext 14.70
7.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
36% On target shareContext 39%
12.83 Shots in the boxContext 10.30
64% Box shareContext 72%
13% ConversionContext 13%
2.40 OffsidesContext 1.63
15.00 Shots allowedContext 11.20
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25
4.67 BlocksContext 2.78
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25
63% Save rateContext 77%
48% PossessionIn forecast 54%
415 PassesContext 530
343 Accurate passesContext 454
83% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.98 Team ratingContext 6.99
13.00 FoulsContext 10.90
12.33 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sabah FA
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 3 pts vs 2.3 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
  • W13 OctH · Slavia Praha2–01.3 xPts
  • L10 SepA · Manchester United0–40.3 xPts
Borussia Dortmund
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel3,449 km4,431 km in 14d
Schedule load53%High
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sabah FA Borussia Dortmund
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0High · 53
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct3.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km3,449 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km4,431 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 12 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one15.14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sabah FA Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Slavia Praha (H) 2–0, 13 Oct
92S. Pokatilov(G)
27T. Puchacz 4A. McCarthy 3S. Solvet 80A. Zedadka
13I. Lepinjica 7U. Rahmonaliyev
21V. Simić 37Du Queiroz 11K. Parris
20J. Mickels
Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sabah FA No reported absences
Borussia Dortmund Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −5.1% · Defence line −2.1% of weighted minutes
  • MID K. Karetsas Rotation 6.67
  • MID E. Can Rotation 7.01
  • MID G. Konstantelias Depth 6.60
1 without recent minutes (no impact): J. Lerma
Total impact vs full squads
  • Sabah FA+0.3 pp
  • Draw+0.1 pp
  • Borussia Dortmund-0.4 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Sabah FA · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00
Borussia Dortmund · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Sabah FABorussia DortmundForecast
Scored per game 1.001.50
Conceded per game 2.001.50
Match goals 3.003.00 3.18
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 50%50% 62%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 0%50% 57%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 50%50%
Games22
Sabah FABorussia DortmundForecast
Scored per game 2.001.90
Conceded per game 1.100.90
Match goals 3.102.80 3.18
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 60%50% 62%
Over 3.5 30%40%
Both teams scored 40%40% 57%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Sabah FABorussia DortmundLeague
Corners
Corners won3.009.00
Corners conceded6.505.50
Match total9.5014.509.71
Over 8.5100% 2/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 10.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Cards
Cards2.001.50
Opponent cards1.501.50
Match total3.503.003.80
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/20% 0/2
Sabah FABorussia DortmundLeague
Corners
Corners won4.865.80
Corners conceded4.574.50
Match total9.4310.309.71
Over 8.571% 5/770% 7/10
Over 9.557% 4/760% 6/10
Over 10.543% 3/740% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.502.20
Opponent cards2.501.50
Match total4.003.703.80
Over 3.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 50 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.62league 3.64
Red cards0.20league 0.14
Cards 5+30%league 36%
Fouls25.2league 23.0
Penalties0.34league 0.28
Home wins52%league 58%
Sabah FA

No previous matches with this referee.

Borussia Dortmund

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Sabah FA2 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Borussia Dortmund2 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Sabah FA10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
1 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
3 4 31-45
3 46-60
5 3 61-75
7 2 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
8 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Champions League

View all fixtures →
Fenerbahce Slavia Praha Oct 2017:45 Sabah FA Borussia Dortmund Oct 2017:45 Liverpool Villarreal Oct 2020:00 Manchester City AEK Athens FC Oct 2020:00 Paris Saint Germain Barcelona Oct 2020:00 VfB Stuttgart Atletico Madrid Oct 2020:00 FC Porto PSV Eindhoven Oct 2020:00 Napoli Bodo/Glimt Oct 2020:00 AS Roma Slovan Bratislava Oct 2020:00 Lille Galatasaray Oct 2117:45 Como Manchester United Oct 2117:45 Aston Villa Viking Oct 2120:00 Bayern München Arsenal Oct 2120:00 Sporting CP Lask Linz Oct 2120:00 Inter Shakhtar Donetsk Oct 2120:00 Real Madrid RB Leipzig Oct 2120:00 Real Betis Feyenoord Oct 2120:00 Club Brugge KV Lens Oct 2120:00