Samsunspor vs Rizespor

Süper Lig Gameweek 19 Sun, Jan 31 · 12:00 Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun

Samsunspor 17th · 4 pts · 8 played LLLLL

VS— Compare

Rizespor 12th · 10 pts · 8 played LWDLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel352 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Samsunspor—%

Draw—%

Rizespor—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Samsun)

Forecast from 16 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Insight Rizespor +0.33 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.36xG against1.03

Defence

Streaks

Streak Samsunspor 6 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Samsunspor

Rizespor

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

23 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

15 AttackIn forecast 22

18 DefenceIn forecast 35

4 Form indexContext 17

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Samsunspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rizespor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Samsunspor

Rizespor

0.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

50% Scored inContext 63%

13% Clean sheetsContext 25%

12.38 ShotsContext 15.00

3.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

24% On target shareContext 32%

7.25 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

55% Box shareContext 57%

7% ConversionContext 7%

2.20 OffsidesContext 1.67

15.50 Shots allowedContext 13.50

6.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

3.88 BlocksContext 4.43

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

63% Save rateContext 74%

55% PossessionIn forecast 54%

473 PassesContext 434

399 Accurate passesContext 367

84% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.61 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.75 FoulsContext 10.25

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

+0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.36

50% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.00 ShotsContext 15.50

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

28% On target shareContext 30%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

56% Box shareContext 59%

8% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.71

16.50 Shots allowedContext 14.10

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

4.00 BlocksContext 4.44

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

65% Save rateContext 71%

56% PossessionIn forecast 54%

461 PassesContext 433

385 Accurate passesContext 367

84% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.50 FoulsContext 9.90

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Samsunspor LLLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,932 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 4 · 0 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -6.4 vs expected

L18 OctA · Kasimpasa1–41.1 xPts
L10 OctH · Trabzonspor0–31.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Erzurumspor FK0–11.1 xPts
L12 SepH · Çorum FK1–51.7 xPts
L6 SepA · Kocaelispor0–11.3 xPts

Rizespor LWDLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel352 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected

L16 OctA · Çorum FK1–21.0 xPts
L10 OctH · Fenerbahce0–30.9 xPts
D20 SepA · Goztepe2–21.3 xPts
W12 SepA · Eyüpspor2–01.5 xPts
L7 SepH · Alanyaspor0–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Samsunspor	Rizespor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 24 Jan	7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,932 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Samsunspor Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Kasimpasa (A) 1–4, 18 Oct

1O. Kocuk(G)

17L. Tómasson 34G. Guarino 22Y. Çift 2J. Mendes

4Elliot Watt 19O. Øhlenschlæger

11E. Kılınç 20Y. Kayan 10T. Coulibaly

18M. Bayo

Rizespor Last XI · not confirmed

4-1-4-1 · vs Çorum FK (A) 1–2, 16 Oct

75Y. Fofana(G)

17Z. Ariss 93M. Sagnan 21S. Bakayoko 54M. Pala

14T. Antalyalı

7V. Mihăilă 20Q. Laçi 10I. Olawoyin 11A. Awokoya-Mebude

9A. Sowe

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Samsunspor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Rizespor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Samsunspor · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.25

Rizespor · Away 2.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-1
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Samsunspor	Rizespor
Çorum FK	L 1–5 H	L 1–2 A
Fenerbahce	L 0–2 H	L 0–3 H
Goztepe	D 3–3 H	D 2–2 A
Points	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Samsunspor wins1 draws3 Rizespor wins

Goals per game1.43 – 1.29 Over 2.543% Both scored43% Clean sheets43% · 14%

22 Aug 2026Rizespor0–2Samsunspor
9 Apr 2026Rizespor4–1Samsunspor
27 Oct 2025Samsunspor1–1Rizespor
22 Feb 2025Samsunspor2–3Rizespor
22 Sep 2024Rizespor0–1Samsunspor
23 Feb 2024Samsunspor3–0Rizespor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Samsunspor	Rizespor
Scored per game	0.88	1.00
Conceded per game	2.38	1.38
Match goals	3.25	2.38
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	50%
Over 3.5	38%	13%
Both teams scored	38%	38%
Clean sheets	13%	25%
Failed to score	50%	38%
Games	8	8

	Samsunspor	Rizespor
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.20	1.70
Match goals	3.20	2.70
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	40%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Samsunspor	Rizespor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.43
Corners conceded	5.63	3.86
Match total	9.63	9.29	9.12
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.88
Opponent cards	2.00	1.38
Match total	3.00	3.26	4.04
Over 3.5	38% 3/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	25% 2/8

	Samsunspor	Rizespor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	5.78
Corners conceded	5.22	3.67
Match total	9.33	9.45	9.12
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.60
Opponent cards	2.20	1.40
Match total	3.50	3.00	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.