Santa Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 25 · 18:00
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Our take
Santa Clara were slight favourites.
Santa Clara were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 12). Santa Clara had 20.9 days of rest, AVS 21 and had to travel.
Rest days20.9 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Santa Clara55%
Draw25%
AVS19%
Santa Clara56%
Draw24%
AVS20%
Santa Clara55%
Draw25%
AVS19%
Santa Clara48%
Draw27%
AVS25%
Santa Clara56%
Draw24%
AVS20%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 68
Team strength
Santa Clara
AVS
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
29
AttackIn forecast
17
53
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Santa ClaraAVS
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.63
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
-0.35
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
63%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.13
ShotsContext
9.25
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.13
34%
On target shareContext
23%
7.13
Shots in the boxContext
5.57
63%
Box shareContext
58%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.75
9.50
Shots allowedContext
13.38
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.00
BlocksContext
3.25
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
78%
Save rateContext
48%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
368
PassesContext
329
299
Accurate passesContext
253
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.56
13.38
FoulsContext
15.63
16.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.88
2.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
-0.52
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
60%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.71
ShotsContext
9.90
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.20
34%
On target shareContext
22%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
6.11
64%
Box shareContext
58%
7%
ConversionContext
6%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.33
10.00
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.33
BlocksContext
3.20
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
78%
Save rateContext
54%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
361
PassesContext
319
289
Accurate passesContext
243
80%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.60
13.29
FoulsContext
16.00
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Santa Clara
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AVS
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Santa Clara |
AVS |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 21Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
64Paulo Victor
23Sidney Lima
13Luís Rocha
42Lucas Soares
35Serginho
6Adriano
8Pedro Ferreira
70Vinícius Lopes
29Wendel
11Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
AVS
Confirmed XI
99João Gonçalves(G)
24Kiki
42C. Devenish
4S. Bane
2Diogo Spencer
15Jaume Grau
6Gustavo Assunção
16K. Kodisang
8Pedro Lima
11B. Akinsola
7Tómané
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AVS+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Santa Clara · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
AVS · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Santa Clara | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Benfica | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Estoril | W 1–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Estrela | D 0–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 8 of 15 · 1.60 per game | 0 of 15 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Santa Clara wins0 draws0 AVS wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 8 Feb 2025AVS1–2Santa Clara
- 31 Aug 2024Santa Clara2–1AVS
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Santa Clara | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 0.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.13 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 50% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Santa Clara | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 0.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.13 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 50% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Santa Clara | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.66 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.75 | 2.88 | |
| Match total | 6.75 | 5.01 | 5.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 88% 7/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Santa Clara | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.88 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 5.10 | 5.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.03league 5.26
Red cards0.43league 0.29
Cards 5+56%league 67%
Fouls28.0league 27.7
Penalties0.34league 0.44
Home wins60%league 36%
Santa Clara3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D3 May 25A · SC Braga1–16
- D5 Jan 25H · Farense0–03
- L11 Mar 23A · Pacos Ferreira0–16
AVS2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L1 Dec 24H · SC Braga0–14
- W14 Sep 24H · Rio Ave1–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Santa Clara8 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
AVS8 games · scored 5 · conceded 20
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
5
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 6 · conceded 23
1
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
1
4
31-45
6
46-60
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
