Santa Clara vs Famalicao – 18 Jan 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 18 Sun, Jan 18 · 15:30 Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores

Santa Clara 13th · 17 pts · 17 played WLDLD

0–1Full time

Famalicao 8th · 23 pts · 17 played LWLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 25). Santa Clara had 7 days of rest, Famalicao 13.8 and had to travel 1,522 km.

Away travel1,522 kmRest days7 · 13.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Santa Clara35%

Draw28%

Famalicao37%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.28

Santa Clara36%

Draw27%

Famalicao37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.34

Santa Clara35%

Draw28%

Famalicao37%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.28

Santa Clara29%

Draw28%

Famalicao44%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.43

Santa Clara36%

Draw27%

Famalicao37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.34

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalMarcio Torres

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 1.00
Matches 4

Team strength

Santa Clara

Famalicao

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

29 AttackIn forecast 24

53 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Santa Clara

Famalicao

0.82 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.18

1.12 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.82

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

59% Scored inContext 71%

29% Clean sheetsContext 47%

11.41 ShotsContext 12.88

3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.38

31% On target shareContext 32%

6.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.71

58% Box shareContext 68%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.15 OffsidesContext 1.80

9.53 Shots allowedContext 10.76

3.94 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.06

2.17 BlocksContext 2.50

2.93 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

73% Save rateContext 81%

47% PossessionIn forecast 51%

366 PassesContext 380

295 Accurate passesContext 308

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.93

14.00 FoulsContext 17.94

15.06 Fouls sufferedContext 15.88

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.82

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

60% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.50 ShotsContext 12.90

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.11

30% On target shareContext 36%

6.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

54% Box shareContext 63%

8% ConversionContext 10%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.80

10.00 Shots allowedContext 11.10

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

2.11 BlocksContext 2.50

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

73% Save rateContext 77%

46% PossessionIn forecast 52%

367 PassesContext 388

294 Accurate passesContext 317

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.90

14.20 FoulsContext 17.30

14.10 Fouls sufferedContext 15.90

3.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Santa Clara

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,927 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Famalicao

Rest13.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,522 km565 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Santa Clara	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 Jan	13.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,522 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,927 km	565 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1Gabriel Batista(G)

21F. Ferrão Venâncio 13Luís Rocha 94Henrique Silva

64Paulo Victor 6Adriano 35Serginho 42Lucas Soares

77Gustavo Klismahn 70Vinícius Lopes

10Gabriel Silva

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

5Rafa Soares 16J. de Haas 55I. Ba 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

12S. Elisor

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Famalicao+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Santa Clara · Home 1.22points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-4
Scored: 0.78
Conceded: 0.78

Famalicao · Away 1.50points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-2
Scored: 0.88
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Santa Clara	Famalicao
Nacional	D 3–3 A	W 1–0 A
FC Porto	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 H
Arouca	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
SC Braga	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Casa Pia	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Rio Ave	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 H
Sporting CP	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 H
GIL Vicente	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
AVS	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 A
Guimaraes	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 H
Tondela	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 A
Alverca	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Benfica	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Estoril	W 1–0 A	W 4–0 H
Estrela	D 0–0 H	L 2–3 H
Moreirense	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 A
Points	17 of 48 · 1.06 per game	20 of 48 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Santa Clara wins0 draws3 Famalicao wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.80 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets0% · 40%

10 Aug 2025Famalicao3–0Santa Clara
10 May 2025Santa Clara2–1Famalicao
30 Dec 2024Famalicao1–2Santa Clara
19 Feb 2023Santa Clara1–3Famalicao
28 Aug 2022Famalicao1–0Santa Clara

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Santa Clara	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	0.82	1.18
Conceded per game	1.12	0.82
Match goals	1.94	2.00	2.53
Over 1.5	53%	53%
Over 2.5	35%	35%	46%
Over 3.5	6%	18%
Both teams scored	41%	35%	52%
Clean sheets	29%	47%
Failed to score	41%	29%
Games	17	17

	Santa Clara	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.30
Conceded per game	1.10	1.10
Match goals	2.00	2.40	2.53
Over 1.5	50%	60%
Over 2.5	30%	40%	46%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Santa Clara	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	4.08	5.24
Corners conceded	5.00	4.88
Match total	9.08	10.12	9.18
Over 8.5	62% 8/13	65% 11/17
Over 9.5	46% 6/13	47% 8/17
Over 10.5	31% 4/13	47% 8/17
Cards
Cards	3.18	2.88
Opponent cards	3.24	2.35
Match total	6.42	5.23	5.37
Over 3.5	88% 15/17	76% 13/17
Over 4.5	71% 12/17	53% 9/17

	Santa Clara	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	5.10
Corners conceded	5.56	5.00
Match total	9.45	10.10	9.18
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	3.50	2.80
Opponent cards	2.90	2.80
Match total	6.40	5.60	5.37
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marcio Torres Portugal · 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.75league 5.03

Red cards0.25league 0.28

Cards 5+50%league 59%

Fouls25.5league 27.2

Penalties1.00league 0.44

Home wins50%league 39%

Santa Clara1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

D30 Nov 25A · Rio Ave1–13

Famalicao

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.