Santa Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 33 Mon, May 11 · 20:15
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Our take
Santa Clara were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Santa Clara. Santa Clara had 9.2 days of rest, Nacional 9.2 and had to travel 964 km.
Away travel964 kmRest days9.2 · 9.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Santa Clara50%
Draw28%
Nacional22%
Santa Clara46%
Draw26%
Nacional27%
Santa Clara50%
Draw28%
Nacional22%
Santa Clara43%
Draw29%
Nacional28%
Santa Clara50%
Draw27%
Nacional23%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Filipe Claudio Carvalho
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.62
- Matches 13
Team strength
Santa Clara
Nacional
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
29
AttackIn forecast
15
53
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Santa ClaraNacional
0.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.34
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
63%
Scored inContext
69%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
11.19
ShotsContext
12.22
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.28
29%
On target shareContext
35%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.43
55%
Box shareContext
57%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.16
OffsidesContext
2.05
9.28
Shots allowedContext
14.19
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.47
2.52
BlocksContext
4.19
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.19
68%
Save rateContext
70%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
361
PassesContext
324
291
Accurate passesContext
249
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.79
14.81
FoulsContext
14.13
14.13
Fouls sufferedContext
11.63
2.78
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.90
ShotsContext
13.20
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
28%
On target shareContext
39%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
53%
Box shareContext
52%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.30
Shots allowedContext
14.10
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.70
BlocksContext
4.30
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
65%
Save rateContext
73%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
345
PassesContext
347
275
Accurate passesContext
274
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.82
15.20
FoulsContext
13.30
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Santa Clara
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,074 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Nacional
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel964 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Santa Clara |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 May | 9.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 964 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,074 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
50João Afonso(G)
64Paulo Victor
4Pedro Pacheco
23Sidney Lima
2Diogo Calila
78Andrey
65José Tavares
10Gabriel Silva
77Gustavo Klismahn
49Welinton
39Gonçalo Paciência
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
33Francisco Gonçalves
34Léo Santos
2João Aurélio
6Matheus Dias
22Filipe Soares
11Paulinho Bóia
10Daniel Júnior
7Witi
9J. Ramírez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Santa Clara · Home
1.25points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-8
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 1.06
Nacional · Away
0.88points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-8
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Santa Clara | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H |
| SC Braga | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Casa Pia | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Rio Ave | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Sporting CP | L 2–4 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 AL 1–4 H |
| GIL Vicente | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| AVS | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Tondela | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Alverca | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Estrela | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Estoril | L 2–4 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Moreirense | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 32 of 93 · 1.03 per game | 30 of 93 · 0.97 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Santa Clara wins1 draws1 Nacional wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 11 Jan 2026Nacional3–3Santa Clara
- 30 Mar 2025Santa Clara1–0Nacional
- 4 Nov 2024Nacional2–0Santa Clara
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Santa Clara | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.94 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.34 | |
| Match goals | 2.19 | 2.44 | 2.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 56% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 44% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 31% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Santa Clara | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Santa Clara | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.46 | 4.42 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 9.03 | 10.52 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 17/28 | 71% 22/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 13/28 | 68% 21/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 9/28 | 55% 17/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.91 | 2.97 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.97 | 2.44 | |
| Match total | 5.88 | 5.41 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 84% 27/32 | 72% 23/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 69% 22/32 | 69% 22/32 | |
| Santa Clara | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.80 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.80 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho Portugal · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 4.83
Red cards0.08league 0.24
Cards 5+31%league 58%
Fouls27.8league 26.8
Penalties0.62league 0.43
Home wins15%league 41%
Santa Clara1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D21 Feb 26A · Alverca1–12
NacionalNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Santa Clara32 games · scored 30 · conceded 40
11
6
0-15
7
16-30
1
8
31-45
3
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
11
6
76-90
Nacional32 games · scored 35 · conceded 43
4
8
0-15
4
2
16-30
7
7
31-45
6
7
46-60
7
8
61-75
7
11
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
5
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
2
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
2
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
