Santa Clara vs Nacional – 10 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 1 Mon, Aug 10 · 20:15 Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores

Santa Clara

2–2Full time

Nacional

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Santa Clara were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Santa Clara. Santa Clara had 86.2 days of rest, Nacional 86.1 and had to travel 964 km.

Away travel964 kmRest days86.2 · 86.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Santa Clara49%

Draw26%

Nacional25%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.03

Santa Clara47%

Draw25%

Nacional28%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Santa Clara49%

Draw26%

Nacional25%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.03

Santa Clara42%

Draw27%

Nacional31%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.15

Santa Clara49%

Draw25%

Nacional25%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.04

Over 2.5 47% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalHelder Carvalho

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 26

Team strength

Santa Clara

Nacional

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 17

29 AttackIn forecast 15

53 DefenceIn forecast 13

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nacional

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Santa Clara

Nacional

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

0.85 xGVia Att/Def 0.74

0.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.35 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

70% Scored inContext 60%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.70 ShotsContext 12.20

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

28% On target shareContext 38%

5.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.30

55% Box shareContext 50%

12% ConversionContext 7%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.57

10.30 Shots allowedContext 13.60

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

2.90 BlocksContext 4.40

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

74% Save rateContext 82%

47% PossessionIn forecast 50%

333 PassesContext 354

260 Accurate passesContext 279

78% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.82

14.30 FoulsContext 14.10

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Santa Clara

Rest86.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nacional

Rest86.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel964 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Santa Clara	Nacional
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	86.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May	86.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	964 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Lucas França(G)

5Guilherme Romão 4Pedro Pacheco 23Sidney Lima 2Diogo Calila

41Daniel Borges 6Pedro Ferreira

70Vinícius Lopes 8José Tavares 99Sorriso

9Gonçalo Paciência

Nacional Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1R. Bellucci(G)

38Zé Vitor 6Matheus Dias 34Léo Santos

7M. Jensen 26Joel Silva 28Liziero 52Wesley Gasolina

10Daniel Júnior 99Pablo Ruan 8Miguel Baeza

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Nacional Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Nacional+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Santa Clara · Home No home games yet this season.

Nacional · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Santa Clara wins1 draws1 Nacional wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.25 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets50% · 25%

11 May 2026Santa Clara2–0Nacional
11 Jan 2026Nacional3–3Santa Clara
30 Mar 2025Santa Clara1–0Nacional
4 Nov 2024Nacional2–0Santa Clara

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Santa Clara	Nacional	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.56
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	47%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	50%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Santa Clara	Nacional	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.90
Conceded per game	1.00	0.90
Match goals	2.20	1.80	2.56
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	10%	47%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	30%	20%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Santa Clara	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.75
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	5.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Santa Clara	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	4.90
Corners conceded	4.80	6.40
Match total	9.50	11.30	9.75
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.20
Opponent cards	2.50	2.30
Match total	4.50	5.50	5.00
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Helder Carvalho Portugal · 26 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.81league 4.75

Red cards0.42league 0.25

Cards 5+65%league 50%

Fouls29.5league 25.8

Penalties0.27league 0.38

Home wins46%league 38%

Santa Clara3 with this referee

Record0-0-3 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L5 Apr 25A · Guimaraes0–22
L11 Feb 23A · Arouca0–14
L20 Aug 22H · Arouca1–22

Nacional2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 1

W19 Jan 25H · AVS3–12
D29 Sep 24A · Famalicao0–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.