Santa Clara
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 1 Mon, Aug 10 · 20:15
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Santa Clara48.5%fair odds 2.06
Draw26.9%fair odds 3.72
Nacional24.6%fair odds 4.06
Expected goals1.54 – 1.03total 2.56
Likeliest score1–112.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Nacional
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Santa Clara ↓ · Nacional → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Santa Clara goals, columns Nacional goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%7.82
- 1–011.2%8.92
- 2–19.3%10.70
- 2–09.1%10.98
- 0–08.4%11.98
- 0–17.3%13.78
- 1–26.2%16.05
- 2–24.8%20.88
- 3–14.8%20.88
- 3–04.7%21.41
Winning margin
10.2%
Santa Clara by 3+
fair 9.80
14.9%
Santa Clara by 2
fair 6.69
23.4%
Santa Clara by 1
fair 4.28
26.9%
Draw
fair 3.72
15.4%
Nacional by 1
fair 6.51
6.6%
Nacional by 2
fair 15.04
2.6%
Nacional by 3+
fair 38.17
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Santa Clara goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Nacional goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara win | 48.5% | 48.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 26.9% | 26.6% | +0.2 pp |
| Nacional win | 24.6% | 24.7% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.2% | 48.1% | -0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.0% | 51.6% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Santa Clara | 1.54 | 1.56 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Nacional | 1.03 | 1.04 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Santa Clara win48.5%2.06
- Draw26.9%3.72
- Nacional win24.6%4.06
- Double chance Santa Clara or draw75.4%1.33
- Double chance Santa Clara or Nacional73.1%1.37
- Double chance Nacional or draw51.5%1.94
- Draw no bet Santa Clara66.3%1.51
- Draw no bet Nacional33.7%2.97
Goals
- Over 0.591.6%1.09
- Over 1.573.2%1.37
- Over 2.547.2%2.12
- Over 3.525.6%3.91
- Over 4.511.7%8.52
- Under 1.526.8%3.73
- Under 2.552.8%1.89
- Under 3.574.4%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes51.0%1.96
- No49.0%2.04
- Yes and over 2.538.2%2.62
- Santa Clara win and yes21.0%4.76
- Draw and yes18.5%5.40
- Nacional win and yes11.5%8.70
Team goals
- Santa Clara over 0.578.5%1.27
- Santa Clara over 1.545.5%2.20
- Santa Clara over 2.520.1%4.98
- Nacional over 0.564.1%1.56
- Nacional over 1.527.4%3.66
- Nacional over 2.58.5%11.76
- Santa Clara clean sheet35.9%2.79
- Nacional clean sheet21.5%4.65
- Santa Clara win to nil27.5%3.63
- Nacional win to nil13.1%7.61
Handicap
- Santa Clara −1.525.2%3.98
- Santa Clara −2.510.2%9.80
- Nacional +1.574.8%1.34
- Nacional +2.589.8%1.11
- Nacional −1.59.3%10.79
- Santa Clara +1.590.7%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored8
Favourite won25.0%
Avg chance given to result33.7%
1X2 Brier0.775
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.5% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 2 | 42.5% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 50.9% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.1% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 81.1% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 8 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 8 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.