Santa Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 31 Sun, Apr 26 · 18:00
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Our take
SC Braga were slight favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 22). SC Braga come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Santa Clara had 8 days of rest, SC Braga 3 and had to travel 1,533 km.
Away travel1,533 kmRest days8 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 4
Santa Clara22%
Draw29%
SC Braga49%
Santa Clara19%
Draw24%
SC Braga58%
Santa Clara22%
Draw29%
SC Braga49%
Santa Clara18%
Draw27%
SC Braga56%
Santa Clara20%
Draw28%
SC Braga52%
Over 2.5 39%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 89
Team strength
Santa Clara
SC Braga
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
29
AttackIn forecast
42
53
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Santa ClaraSC Braga
0.87
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.93
1.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.97
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.03
ShotsContext
11.67
3.39
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.77
29%
On target shareContext
41%
6.07
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
54%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
17%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.50
Shots allowedContext
8.53
3.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.65
BlocksContext
2.54
2.72
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.19
69%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
363
PassesContext
602
291
Accurate passesContext
529
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.88
15.07
FoulsContext
11.30
14.27
Fouls sufferedContext
11.63
2.73
Yellow cardsContext
1.97
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.70
70%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.60
ShotsContext
7.60
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
29%
On target shareContext
45%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
50%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
22%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.43
10.20
Shots allowedContext
9.50
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.00
BlocksContext
2.63
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
67%
Save rateContext
66%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
361
PassesContext
604
288
Accurate passesContext
531
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.84
16.00
FoulsContext
12.60
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Santa Clara
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,927 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
SC Braga
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel1,533 km1,518 km in 14d
Schedule load68%Critical
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Santa Clara |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Critical · 68 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 3Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,533 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,927 km | 1,518 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 2 / 4 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
5Guilherme Romão
21F. Ferrão Venâncio
23Sidney Lima
2Diogo Calila
8Pedro Ferreira
10Gabriel Silva
77Gustavo Klismahn
35Serginho
11Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
39Gonçalo Paciência
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
12Tiago Sá(G)
5Leonardo Lelo
6Vitor Carvalho
17Gabriel Moscardo
20M. Dorgeles
34D. Tıknaz
90Luisinho
41Yanis da Rocha
10R. Zalazar
9A. El Ouazzani
39Fran Navarro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Santa Clara · Home
1.13points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-8
- Scored
- 0.87
- Conceded
- 1.07
SC Braga · Away
1.87points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-3
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 0.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Santa Clara | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Rio Ave | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Sporting CP | L 2–4 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| AVS | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | W 4–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Tondela | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Alverca | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Estrela | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Estoril | L 2–4 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Moreirense | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Nacional | D 3–3 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Arouca | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Points | 29 of 87 · 1.00 per game | 53 of 87 · 1.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Santa Clara wins1 draws4 SC Braga wins
Goals per game0.80 – 2.60
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets0% · 60%
- 15 Dec 2025SC Braga1–0Santa Clara
- 3 May 2025SC Braga1–1Santa Clara
- 22 Dec 2024Santa Clara0–2SC Braga
- 14 May 2023SC Braga5–3Santa Clara
- 5 Jan 2023Santa Clara0–4SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Santa Clara | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.87 | 1.93 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.23 | 0.97 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.90 | 2.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 53% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Santa Clara | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.80 | 2.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Santa Clara | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.42 | 5.54 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.69 | 3.15 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 8.69 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 16/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 12/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 8/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.87 | 2.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.93 | 2.53 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 4.60 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 25/30 | 73% 22/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 20/30 | 53% 16/30 | |
| Santa Clara | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 8.60 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.60 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 89 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.89league 4.80
Red cards0.21league 0.23
Cards 5+57%league 57%
Fouls28.3league 26.8
Penalties0.29league 0.43
Home wins39%league 41%
Santa Clara1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 Aug 25A · Famalicao0–32
SC Braga14 with this referee
Record5-2-7
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.1
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds5
- L10 May 25A · Casa Pia1–20
- D7 Apr 25A · Sporting CP1–15
- W8 Mar 25H · FC Porto1–03
- W4 Jan 25A · Benfica2–13
- L10 Nov 24H · Sporting CP2–45
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Santa Clara30 games · scored 26 · conceded 37
10
5
0-15
6
16-30
1
8
31-45
3
7
46-60
3
6
61-75
9
5
76-90
SC Braga30 games · scored 58 · conceded 29
10
2
0-15
13
7
16-30
11
8
31-45
6
3
46-60
6
5
61-75
12
4
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
4
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
