Santa Clara vs Sporting CP – 8 Nov 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 8 · 20:30 Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores

Santa Clara 11th · 11 pts · 10 played WLLWL

1–2Full time

Sporting CP 2nd · 25 pts · 10 played WWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sporting CP were clear favourites.

Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 25). Santa Clara had 5 days of rest, Sporting CP 8 and had to travel 1,445 km.

Away travel1,445 kmRest days5 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Santa Clara13%

Draw21%

Sporting CP66%

Expected goals 0.82 – 2.07

Santa Clara14%

Draw21%

Sporting CP66%

Expected goals 0.85 – 2.10

Santa Clara13%

Draw21%

Sporting CP66%

Expected goals 0.82 – 2.07

Santa Clara10%

Draw18%

Sporting CP73%

Expected goals 0.73 – 2.32

Santa Clara14%

Draw21%

Sporting CP66%

Expected goals 0.85 – 2.10

Over 2.5 55% Both score 50% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves

Cards per match 6.5
Penalties per match 0.88
Matches 8

Team strength

Santa Clara

Sporting CP

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 80

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

29 AttackIn forecast 75

53 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sporting CP

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Santa Clara

Sporting CP

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 2.37

0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.61

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

60% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 60%

12.30 ShotsContext 19.80

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.50

32% On target shareContext 38%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 13.40

63% Box shareContext 67%

7% ConversionContext 13%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.25

9.20 Shots allowedContext 7.60

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.44

1.83 BlocksContext 2.30

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.13

78% Save rateContext 81%

50% PossessionIn forecast 62%

395 PassesContext 525

324 Accurate passesContext 456

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.80 Team ratingContext 7.15

12.90 FoulsContext 11.70

16.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 2.09

0.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.63

-0.38 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

70% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.00 ShotsContext 15.40

4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30

33% On target shareContext 41%

8.25 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

63% Box shareContext 64%

8% ConversionContext 13%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.50

10.13 Shots allowedContext 9.40

4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44

2.00 BlocksContext 2.90

3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

80% Save rateContext 77%

49% PossessionIn forecast 57%

384 PassesContext 523

311 Accurate passesContext 457

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.87 Team ratingContext 7.03

12.13 FoulsContext 13.20

15.75 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Santa Clara

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km3,034 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sporting CP

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,445 km439 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Santa Clara	Sporting CP
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Nov	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,445 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,034 km	439 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	21.8	21.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1Gabriel Batista(G)

64Paulo Victor 21F. Ferrão Venâncio 13Luís Rocha 23Sidney Lima 42Lucas Soares

70Vinícius Lopes 6Adriano 8Pedro Ferreira 35Serginho

29Wendel

Sporting CP Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Rui Silva(G)

20M. Araújo 25G. Inácio 26O. Diomande 22Iván Fresneda

52João Simões 42M. Hjulmand

8Pote 17Trincão 10Geny Catamo

97L. Suárez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Sporting CP Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sporting CP+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Santa Clara · Home 1.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.80

Sporting CP · Away 3.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 5-0-0
Scored: 2.40
Conceded: 0.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Santa Clara	Sporting CP
Tondela	L 1–2 H	W 3–0 A
Alverca	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 H
Estoril	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 A
Moreirense	L 0–1 H	W 3–0 H
Famalicao	L 0–3 A	W 2–1 A
Points	6 of 15 · 1.20 per game	15 of 15 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Santa Clara wins0 draws3 Sporting CP wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored25% Clean sheets25% · 50%

12 Apr 2025Santa Clara0–1Sporting CP
30 Nov 2024Sporting CP0–1Santa Clara
1 Apr 2023Sporting CP3–0Santa Clara
8 Oct 2022Santa Clara1–2Sporting CP

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Santa Clara	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	2.50
Conceded per game	1.10	0.50
Match goals	1.90	3.00	2.90
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	60%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	10	10

	Santa Clara	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	2.50
Conceded per game	1.10	0.50
Match goals	1.90	3.00	2.90
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	60%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Santa Clara	Sporting CP	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	6.44
Corners conceded	4.67	3.11
Match total	9.17	9.55	9.18
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.90
Opponent cards	3.30	3.10
Match total	6.10	5.00	5.35
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10

	Santa Clara	Sporting CP	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	5.00
Corners conceded	5.20	3.75
Match total	10.00	8.75	9.18
Over 8.5	80% 4/5	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	60% 3/5	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.10
Opponent cards	2.90	2.70
Match total	5.80	4.80	5.35
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 8 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.75league 5.12

Red cards0.75league 0.26

Cards 5+75%league 63%

Fouls29.6league 27.7

Penalties0.88league 0.46

Home wins25%league 37%

Santa Clara1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.5.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L4 Oct 25A · Guimaraes1–25

Sporting CP

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.