Santa Clara
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 8 · 20:30
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Santa Clara13.3%fair odds 7.49
Draw20.8%fair odds 4.80
Sporting CP65.8%fair odds 1.52
Expected goals0.82 – 2.07total 2.90
Likeliest score0–211.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sporting CP
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Santa Clara ↓ · Sporting CP → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Santa Clara goals, columns Sporting CP goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.9%8.43
- 0–110.9%9.14
- 1–19.9%10.07
- 1–29.8%10.24
- 0–38.2%12.20
- 1–36.8%14.81
- 0–06.0%16.61
- 0–44.2%23.54
- 1–04.0%24.71
- 2–24.0%24.86
Winning margin
0.9%
Santa Clara by 3+
fair 105.43
3.2%
Santa Clara by 2
fair 31.32
9.2%
Santa Clara by 1
fair 10.86
20.8%
Draw
fair 4.80
23.9%
Sporting CP by 1
fair 4.18
20.2%
Sporting CP by 2
fair 4.94
21.7%
Sporting CP by 3+
fair 4.61
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Santa Clara goals
44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
Sporting CP goals
13%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara win | 13.3% | 13.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 20.8% | 20.6% | +0.2 pp |
| Sporting CP win | 65.8% | 65.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 56.6% | -1.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.6% | 50.8% | -1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Santa Clara | 0.82 | 0.85 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Sporting CP | 2.07 | 2.10 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Santa Clara win13.3%7.49
- Draw20.8%4.80
- Sporting CP win65.8%1.52
- Double chance Santa Clara or draw34.2%2.93
- Double chance Santa Clara or Sporting CP79.2%1.26
- Double chance Sporting CP or draw86.7%1.15
- Draw no bet Santa Clara16.9%5.93
- Draw no bet Sporting CP83.1%1.20
Goals
- Over 0.594.0%1.06
- Over 1.579.0%1.27
- Over 2.555.3%1.81
- Over 3.533.0%3.03
- Over 4.516.8%5.96
- Under 1.521.0%4.76
- Under 2.544.7%2.24
- Under 3.567.0%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes49.6%2.02
- No50.4%1.98
- Yes and over 2.539.6%2.52
- Santa Clara win and yes6.8%14.74
- Draw and yes14.8%6.76
- Sporting CP win and yes28.0%3.58
Team goals
- Santa Clara over 0.556.1%1.78
- Santa Clara over 1.520.0%5.01
- Santa Clara over 2.55.1%19.66
- Sporting CP over 0.587.4%1.14
- Sporting CP over 1.561.3%1.63
- Sporting CP over 2.534.3%2.91
- Santa Clara clean sheet12.6%7.95
- Sporting CP clean sheet43.9%2.28
- Santa Clara win to nil6.6%15.24
- Sporting CP win to nil37.9%2.64
Handicap
- Santa Clara −1.54.1%24.15
- Santa Clara −2.50.9%105.43
- Sporting CP +1.595.9%1.04
- Sporting CP +2.599.1%1.01
- Sporting CP −1.541.9%2.39
- Santa Clara +1.558.1%1.72
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored93
Favourite won57.0%
Avg chance given to result42.7%
1X2 Brier0.558
Over 2.5 called right60.2%
BTTS called right54.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 37.3% | 35.7% |
| 40–50% | 34 | 44.9% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 53.9% | 60.9% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 67.0% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 75.2% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 64 of 93 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5592 | 0.5368 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.6% | 44.8% |
| Favourite won | 57.8% | 59.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 64 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 93 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.