Primeira Liga Gameweek 34 Sun, May 16 · 16:00 Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Santa Clara 4th · 18 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Sporting CP 3rd · 18 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,445 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Santa Clara—%
Draw—%
Sporting CP—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)

Forecast from 1 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Santa Clara and Sporting CP. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Santa ClaraSporting CP
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 83
29 AttackIn forecast 75
53 DefenceIn forecast 81
73 Form indexContext 83
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Santa Clara

Attack—
Defense risk—

Sporting CP

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Santa ClaraSporting CP
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13
1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.70
0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85
+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.80
88% Scored inContext 100%
63% Clean sheetsContext 25%
13.13 ShotsContext 12.50
3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
27% On target shareContext 44%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.25
60% Box shareContext 67%
11% ConversionContext 20%
1.80 OffsidesContext 1.71
7.75 Shots allowedContext 9.13
2.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.14
1.63 BlocksContext 2.14
2.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29
83% Save rateContext 73%
47% PossessionIn forecast 59%
379 PassesContext 550
300 Accurate passesContext 488
79% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.85 Team ratingContext 6.96
13.25 FoulsContext 11.50
13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38
2.75 Yellow cardsContext 2.25
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.71
0.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04
+0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.79
80% Scored inContext 100%
60% Clean sheetsContext 30%
12.60 ShotsContext 11.90
3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40
24% On target shareContext 45%
7.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.80
59% Box shareContext 66%
11% ConversionContext 21%
1.57 OffsidesContext 1.88
8.80 Shots allowedContext 10.40
2.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44
2.10 BlocksContext 2.33
2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78
88% Save rateContext 81%
46% PossessionIn forecast 55%
367 PassesContext 521
289 Accurate passesContext 457
79% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.88 Team ratingContext 7.00
12.50 FoulsContext 11.70
13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60
2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Santa Clara
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km5,959 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected
  • W10 OctA · Casa Pia1–01.6 xPts
  • D20 SepH · SC Braga0–01.3 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Arouca2–11.2 xPts
  • W6 SepH · Rio Ave4–01.9 xPts
  • D29 AugA · Alverca1–11.3 xPts
Sporting CP
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,445 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 83 · 11 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
  • W13 OctA · Lens2–01.5 xPts
  • W9 OctA · SC Braga3–11.5 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Arouca2–22.4 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Famalicao1–11.9 xPts
  • W9 SepH · Galatasaray3–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Santa Clara Sporting CP
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 10Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 May7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,445 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways5,959 km43 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one——

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Santa Clara Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Casa Pia (A) 1–0, 10 Oct
1Lucas França(G)
5Guilherme Romão 21Emanuel Fernandes 4Pedro Pacheco 42Lucas Soares
20Tiago Ribeiro 6Pedro Ferreira 8José Tavares
10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos 9Gonçalo Paciência 70Vinícius Lopes
Sporting CP Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Lens (A) 2–0, 13 Oct
30Kaique(G)
20M. Araújo 25G. Inácio 72Eduardo Quaresma 22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia 5Sergi Altimira 8João Simões
19N. Irankunda 97L. Suárez 10Geny Catamo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Santa Clara Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Sporting CP Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Santa Clara · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-2-0
Scored
1.75
Conceded
0.50
Sporting CP · Away 2.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-2-0
Scored
2.50
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

OpponentSanta ClaraSporting CP
SC Braga D 0–0 H W 3–1 A
Arouca W 2–1 A D 2–2 H
Rio Ave W 4–0 H W 4–0 A
Alverca D 1–1 A W 3–1 H
Famalicao W 1–0 H D 1–1 A
Nacional D 2–2 H W 2–0 H
Points12 of 18 · 2.00 per game14 of 18 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Santa Clara wins0 draws5 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game0.83 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 33%
  • 3 Apr 2026Sporting CP4–2Santa Clara
  • 8 Nov 2025Santa Clara1–2Sporting CP
  • 12 Apr 2025Santa Clara0–1Sporting CP
  • 30 Nov 2024Sporting CP0–1Santa Clara
  • 1 Apr 2023Sporting CP3–0Santa Clara
  • 8 Oct 2022Santa Clara1–2Sporting CP

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Santa ClaraSporting CPForecast
Scored per game 1.502.50
Conceded per game 0.501.13
Match goals 2.003.63
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 38%75%
Over 3.5 25%75%
Both teams scored 38%75%
Clean sheets 63%25%
Failed to score 13%0%
Games88
Santa ClaraSporting CPForecast
Scored per game 1.402.50
Conceded per game 0.501.00
Match goals 1.903.50
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 30%70%
Over 3.5 20%70%
Both teams scored 30%70%
Clean sheets 60%30%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Santa ClaraSporting CPLeague
Corners
Corners won4.133.57
Corners conceded5.383.29
Match total9.516.868.91
Over 8.563% 5/814% 1/7
Over 9.563% 5/80% 0/7
Over 10.525% 2/80% 0/7
Cards
Cards2.882.38
Opponent cards2.252.50
Match total5.134.884.55
Over 3.575% 6/863% 5/8
Over 4.538% 3/838% 3/8
Santa ClaraSporting CPLeague
Corners
Corners won4.203.22
Corners conceded5.703.67
Match total9.906.898.91
Over 8.570% 7/1022% 2/9
Over 9.570% 7/100% 0/9
Over 10.530% 3/100% 0/9
Cards
Cards2.402.10
Opponent cards2.002.50
Match total4.404.604.55
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Santa Clara8 games · scored 12 · conceded 4
2 0-15
4 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
3 76-90
Sporting CP8 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
4 0-15
4 16-30
3 1 31-45
5 46-60
2 3 61-75
2 5 76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 14 · conceded 5
2 0-15
5 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 61-75
4 76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
4 1 0-15
6 16-30
3 1 31-45
6 46-60
4 3 61-75
2 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Primeira Liga

View all fixtures →
Benfica Arouca May 1616:00 FC Porto SC Braga May 1616:00 Maritimo Alverca May 1616:00 Moreirense Rio Ave May 1616:00 Guimaraes Famalicao May 1616:00 Santa Clara Sporting CP May 1616:00 Estoril Estrela May 1616:00 GIL Vicente Nacional May 1616:00 Casa Pia Academico Viseu May 1616:00