Guimaraes vs Famalicao

Primeira Liga Gameweek 34 Sun, May 16 · 16:00 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

Guimaraes 15th · 5 pts · 8 played LDLDL

VS— Compare

Famalicao 13th · 7 pts · 8 played DDDWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel19 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Guimaraes—%

Draw—%

Famalicao—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Guimarães)

Forecast from 1 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Insight Famalicao −0.23 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for0.90xG against1.13

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Guimaraes

Famalicao

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

28 AttackIn forecast 24

39 DefenceIn forecast 36

13 Form indexContext 30

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Guimaraes

Famalicao

0.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 0.76

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.85 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

50% Scored inContext 75%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

17.25 ShotsContext 10.00

4.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.25

23% On target shareContext 33%

10.63 Shots in the boxContext 4.75

62% Box shareContext 47%

4% ConversionContext 13%

1.43 OffsidesContext 1.40

9.13 Shots allowedContext 11.88

3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.38

3.00 BlocksContext 2.75

2.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

62% Save rateContext 59%

54% PossessionIn forecast 55%

449 PassesContext 472

370 Accurate passesContext 405

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.77

15.63 FoulsContext 11.63

9.88 Fouls sufferedContext 15.25

2.63 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.89 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

40% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.60 ShotsContext 10.50

4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

23% On target shareContext 31%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 5.10

62% Box shareContext 48%

3% ConversionContext 11%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.57

8.90 Shots allowedContext 10.60

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

2.63 BlocksContext 2.67

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.80

62% Save rateContext 62%

57% PossessionIn forecast 55%

448 PassesContext 465

370 Accurate passesContext 399

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.81

14.70 FoulsContext 10.90

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Guimaraes LDLDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km78 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 13 · 2 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected

L11 OctA · Benfica0–20.4 xPts
D20 SepH · Moreirense1–11.9 xPts
L12 SepA · Academico Viseu1–21.3 xPts
D6 SepH · Casa Pia0–02.1 xPts
L31 AugA · SC Braga0–10.9 xPts

Famalicao DDDWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel19 km60 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

L12 OctH · Alverca1–41.8 xPts
W19 SepA · Nacional4–01.7 xPts
D13 SepH · Sporting CP1–10.8 xPts
D5 SepA · Estrela2–21.4 xPts
D30 AugH · GIL Vicente0–01.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Guimaraes	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 May	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	19 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	78 km	60 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	—	—

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Guimaraes Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Benfica (A) 0–2, 11 Oct

48O. Zych(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 28Thiago Balieiro 21T. Borevković 23T. Strata

8Gonçalo Nogueira 44L. Doucet

7O. Camara 20Samu 17M. Nogueira

9A. Jakupovic

Famalicao Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Alverca (H) 1–4, 12 Oct

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 15Víctor Rofino 36M. Mattara 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

21Tamás Szücs 8Marcos Peña

7Sorriso 14M. De Amorim 23Gil Dias

70G. Koutsias

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Guimaraes Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Famalicao Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Guimaraes · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.50

Famalicao · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Guimaraes	Famalicao
Nacional	W 1–0 H	W 4–0 A
Sporting CP	L 2–3 A	D 1–1 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Guimaraes wins1 draws3 Famalicao wins

Goals per game1.38 – 1.25 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 25%

14 Mar 2026Guimaraes1–2Famalicao
26 Oct 2025Famalicao2–0Guimaraes
8 Feb 2025Famalicao0–0Guimaraes
1 Sep 2024Guimaraes2–1Famalicao
9 Mar 2024Guimaraes1–0Famalicao
8 Oct 2023Famalicao1–3Guimaraes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Guimaraes	Famalicao
Scored per game	0.63	1.25
Conceded per game	1.25	1.38
Match goals	1.88	2.63
Over 1.5	50%	75%
Over 2.5	25%	50%
Over 3.5	13%	38%
Both teams scored	38%	63%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	50%	25%
Games	8	8

	Guimaraes	Famalicao
Scored per game	0.50	1.10
Conceded per game	1.30	1.10
Match goals	1.80	2.20
Over 1.5	50%	60%
Over 2.5	20%	40%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	60%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Guimaraes	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	5.75	5.75
Corners conceded	4.00	3.88
Match total	9.75	9.63	8.91
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.75	2.38
Opponent cards	2.50	2.38
Match total	5.25	4.76	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	63% 5/8

	Guimaraes	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	6.20
Corners conceded	3.80	3.90
Match total	9.60	10.10	8.91
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.10
Opponent cards	2.50	2.40
Match total	5.20	4.50	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.