Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel257 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Benfica—%
Draw—%
Arouca—%
Weather (Lisboa)
Forecast from 1 May
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Benfica and Arouca. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Benfica
+1.26
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.03xG against0.77
-
Trend
Benfica
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Benfica
2.7
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Benfica
+1.26
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.03xG against0.77
-
Trend
Benfica
2.7
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Benfica
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Benfica
0.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Benfica
4
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
BenficaArouca
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
81
AttackIn forecast
28
81
DefenceIn forecast
37
85
Form indexContext
45
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaArouca
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
2.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
0.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
100%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
19.50
ShotsContext
10.50
6.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
35%
On target shareContext
36%
14.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
75%
Box shareContext
60%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.83
7.63
Shots allowedContext
14.25
2.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.80
BlocksContext
3.75
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
59%
Save rateContext
81%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
561
PassesContext
440
492
Accurate passesContext
372
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.15
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.13
FoulsContext
10.38
16.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.88
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
2.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.67
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
100%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
18.13
ShotsContext
11.30
5.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
32%
On target shareContext
35%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
71%
Box shareContext
60%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.88
Shots allowedContext
13.80
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.56
BlocksContext
4.00
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
75%
Save rateContext
79%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
538
PassesContext
439
472
Accurate passesContext
370
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.16
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.00
FoulsContext
11.00
15.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
WWLWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Arouca
WDLDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel257 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 May | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 257 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Last XI · not confirmed
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
2C. Lenglet
44Tomás Araújo
6A. Bah
36João Palhinha
8F. Aursnes
25G. Prestianni
10H. Sudakov
11D. Lukébakio
22J. Durán
Arouca
Last XI · not confirmed
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
18O. Lebedenko
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
8T. Fukui
6E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
10Pablo Gozálbez
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Arouca
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Arouca · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Benfica | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| FC Porto | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Moreirense | W 4–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Maritimo | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Estoril | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 12 of 15 · 2.40 per game | 10 of 15 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
7 Benfica wins1 draws0 Arouca wins
Goals per game3.25 – 0.38
Over 2.588%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 0%
- 14 Mar 2026Arouca1–2Benfica
- 25 Oct 2025Benfica5–0Arouca
- 13 Apr 2025Benfica2–2Arouca
- 1 Dec 2024Arouca0–2Benfica
- 12 May 2024Benfica5–0Arouca
- 6 Jan 2024Arouca0–3Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 3.88 | 2.25 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 88% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Benfica | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.60 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.51 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.13 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.13 | 6.00 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Benfica | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.38 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.63 | 8.60 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.50 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Benfica8 games · scored 24 · conceded 7
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
9
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Arouca8 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 27 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
5
16-30
5
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
