Santa Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 7 Sat, Sep 27 · 16:30
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Our take
Santa Clara were slight favourites.
Santa Clara were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 18). Santa Clara had 7 days of rest, Tondela 6 and had to travel 1,545 km.
Away travel1,545 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Santa Clara51%
Draw27%
Tondela23%
Santa Clara52%
Draw25%
Tondela23%
Santa Clara51%
Draw26%
Tondela23%
Santa Clara43%
Draw28%
Tondela29%
Santa Clara52%
Draw25%
Tondela23%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 52
Team strength
Santa Clara
Tondela
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
29
AttackIn forecast
16
53
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Santa ClaraTondela
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.99
50%
Scored inContext
17%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.00
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
30%
On target shareContext
38%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
64%
Box shareContext
63%
6%
ConversionContext
3%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.83
8.50
Shots allowedContext
12.83
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
2.33
BlocksContext
3.00
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
81%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
365
PassesContext
316
300
Accurate passesContext
257
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.83
FoulsContext
12.67
15.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.17
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.99
50%
Scored inContext
17%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.00
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
30%
On target shareContext
38%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
64%
Box shareContext
63%
6%
ConversionContext
3%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.83
8.50
Shots allowedContext
12.83
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
2.33
BlocksContext
3.00
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
81%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
365
PassesContext
316
300
Accurate passesContext
257
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.83
FoulsContext
12.67
15.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.17
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Santa Clara
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tondela
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,545 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Santa Clara |
Tondela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,545 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
32MT
21F. Ferrão Venâncio
23Sidney Lima
2Diogo Calila
6Adriano
35Serginho
42Lucas Soares
3Matheus Pereira
9Anthony Carter
28Luquinhas
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
48Tiago Manso
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
2Bebeto
15S. Sithole
32Juan Rodríguez
17Ivan Cavaleiro
16Rony Lopes
7Pedro Henryque
29J. Siebatcheu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tondela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Santa Clara · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Tondela · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Santa Clara | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Benfica | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Estoril | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Estrela | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 8 of 15 · 1.60 per game | 2 of 15 · 0.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Santa Clara | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 2.00 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 83% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Santa Clara | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 2.00 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 83% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Santa Clara | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 5.83 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 9.00 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.83 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.17 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 3.83 | 5.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Santa Clara | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 5.83 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 9.00 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 3.83 | 5.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 17% 1/6 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 52 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 5.02
Red cards0.27league 0.20
Cards 5+46%league 61%
Fouls25.3league 28.1
Penalties0.17league 0.41
Home wins44%league 36%
Santa Clara4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 Feb 25A · Estrela0–01
- W1 Feb 25H · Casa Pia2–13
- W31 Aug 24H · AVS2–11
- L5 Jan 23H · SC Braga0–41
TondelaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Santa Clara6 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Tondela6 games · scored 2 · conceded 10
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Tondela6 games · scored 2 · conceded 10
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
