Sassuolo vs AS Roma – 26 Oct 2025

Serie A Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 26 · 14:00 MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia

Sassuolo 12th · 10 pts · 7 played WLWWD

0–1Full time

AS Roma 4th · 15 pts · 7 played LWWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were slight favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 24). AS Roma usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Sassuolo had 8 days of rest, AS Roma 2.8 and had to travel 347 km.

Away travel347 kmRest days8 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Sassuolo19%

Draw25%

AS Roma57%

Expected goals 0.90 – 1.74

Sassuolo19%

Draw24%

AS Roma57%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.84

Sassuolo19%

Draw25%

AS Roma57%

Expected goals 0.88 – 1.72

Sassuolo14%

Draw22%

AS Roma64%

Expected goals 0.80 – 1.95

Sassuolo19%

Draw24%

AS Roma57%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.87

Over 2.5 49% Both score 49% Likeliest score 0–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Reggio Emilia)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyGianluca Manganiello

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 50

Team strength

Sassuolo

AS Roma

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 74

41 AttackIn forecast 72

32 DefenceIn forecast 75

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sassuolo

AS Roma

1.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.43

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.81

+0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

71% Scored inContext 71%

43% Clean sheetsContext 57%

9.29 ShotsContext 13.14

3.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.71

40% On target shareContext 36%

5.86 Shots in the boxContext 8.57

62% Box shareContext 66%

12% ConversionContext 8%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.71 Shots allowedContext 10.00

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.86

3.43 BlocksContext 1.80

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43

80% Save rateContext 85%

44% PossessionIn forecast 59%

370 PassesContext 483

302 Accurate passesContext 403

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.90

12.00 FoulsContext 15.14

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 17.29

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 1.71

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.77

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

70% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.20 ShotsContext 14.20

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

36% On target shareContext 35%

5.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.10

62% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.17

12.50 Shots allowedContext 9.10

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

3.40 BlocksContext 1.75

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

77% Save rateContext 78%

44% PossessionIn forecast 59%

359 PassesContext 489

287 Accurate passesContext 409

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.90 FoulsContext 15.60

14.20 Fouls sufferedContext 16.10

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sassuolo

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,567 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AS Roma

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel347 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sassuolo	AS Roma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Oct	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	347 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,567 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

49A. Murić(G)

3J. Doig 19F. Romagna 21J. Idzes 6S. Walukiewicz

90I. Koné 18N. Matić 42K. Thorstvedt

20A. Fadera 99A. Pinamonti 10D. Berardi

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-5-2

99M. Svilar(G)

5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini 19M. Çelik

12K. Tsimikas 17K. Koné 4B. Cristante 8N. El Aynaoui 43Wesley

31L. Bailey 21P. Dybala

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sassuolo Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AS Roma Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sassuolo+0.0 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
AS Roma+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Sassuolo · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.00

AS Roma · Away 3.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 0.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Sassuolo	AS Roma
Verona	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 H
Inter	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 H
Lazio	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Sassuolo wins2 draws3 AS Roma wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.83 Over 2.567% Both scored83% Clean sheets0% · 17%

17 Mar 2024AS Roma1–0Sassuolo
3 Dec 2023Sassuolo1–2AS Roma
12 Mar 2023AS Roma3–4Sassuolo
9 Nov 2022Sassuolo1–1AS Roma
13 Feb 2022Sassuolo2–2AS Roma
12 Sep 2021AS Roma2–1Sassuolo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sassuolo	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.14	1.00
Conceded per game	1.14	0.43
Match goals	2.29	1.43	2.64
Over 1.5	57%	29%
Over 2.5	43%	14%	49%
Over 3.5	29%	0%
Both teams scored	43%	14%	49%
Clean sheets	43%	57%
Failed to score	29%	29%
Games	7	7

	Sassuolo	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.14	1.00
Conceded per game	1.14	0.70
Match goals	2.29	1.70	2.64
Over 1.5	57%	40%
Over 2.5	43%	30%	49%
Over 3.5	29%	0%
Both teams scored	43%	30%	49%
Clean sheets	43%	40%
Failed to score	29%	30%
Games	7	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sassuolo	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	2.43	5.29
Corners conceded	5.14	3.00
Match total	7.57	8.29	9.07
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	14% 1/7
Over 10.5	0% 0/7	14% 1/7
Cards
Cards	2.57	1.71
Opponent cards	2.14	2.43
Match total	4.71	4.14	3.85
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7

	Sassuolo	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	3.20	5.70
Corners conceded	5.00	3.00
Match total	8.20	8.70	9.07
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.90
Opponent cards	2.10	2.60
Match total	4.70	4.50	3.85
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gianluca Manganiello Italy · 50 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.40league 3.78

Red cards0.16league 0.12

Cards 5+32%league 36%

Fouls23.8league 25.6

Penalties0.22league 0.26

Home wins42%league 38%

Sassuolo6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.7 Pens for · against3 · 1

L17 Mar 24A · AS Roma0–11
L28 Jan 24A · Monza0–13
D17 Dec 23A · Udinese2–21
L7 Jan 23A · Fiorentina1–23
D6 Jan 22H · Genoa1–13

AS Roma5 with this referee

Record4-0-1 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.4 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W29 Mar 25A · Lecce1–02
L10 Nov 24H · Bologna2–32
W19 May 24H · Genoa1–03
W17 Mar 24H · Sassuolo1–02
W3 Apr 22A · Sampdoria1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.