Sassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sassuolo. Sassuolo had 5.8 days of rest, Bologna 2.8 and had to travel 60 km.
Away travel60 kmRest days5.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Sassuolo37%
Draw30%
Bologna33%
Sassuolo33%
Draw27%
Bologna40%
Sassuolo36%
Draw30%
Bologna34%
Sassuolo31%
Draw30%
Bologna40%
Sassuolo38%
Draw28%
Bologna33%
Over 2.5 40%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Reggio Emilia)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Bonacina
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 10
Team strength
Sassuolo
Bologna
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
41
AttackIn forecast
35
32
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SassuoloBologna
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
68%
Scored inContext
75%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.43
ShotsContext
12.82
3.82
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.85
37%
On target shareContext
29%
6.86
Shots in the boxContext
8.15
67%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.32
14.00
Shots allowedContext
10.07
4.96
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.85
3.43
BlocksContext
3.00
3.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.76
72%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
384
PassesContext
425
317
Accurate passesContext
351
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.43
FoulsContext
12.82
13.07
Fouls sufferedContext
14.29
2.36
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.40
ShotsContext
13.20
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
38%
On target shareContext
30%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
69%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.44
15.70
Shots allowedContext
7.50
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
4.00
BlocksContext
2.44
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
72%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
376
PassesContext
417
310
Accurate passesContext
341
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.90
9.20
FoulsContext
12.40
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sassuolo
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km694 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bologna
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel60 km230 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sassuolo |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Mar | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 60 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 694 km | 230 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 7 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
23U. Garcia
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
42K. Thorstvedt
18N. Matić
90I. Koné
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
41M. Vitík
29L. De Silvestri
6N. Moro
23S. Sohm
28N. Cambiaghi
21J. Odgaard
7R. Orsolini
24T. Dallinga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sassuolo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sassuolo+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Bologna-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Sassuolo · Home
1.43points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-6
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.43
Bologna · Away
1.57points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-4
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sassuolo | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Atalanta | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Verona | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Udinese | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Inter | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Pisa | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 HL 2–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Napoli | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Juventus | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Parma | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Torino | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Fiorentina | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Como | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Genoa | L 1–2 H | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 37 of 81 · 1.37 per game | 38 of 81 · 1.41 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Sassuolo wins3 draws3 Bologna wins
Goals per game1.14 – 2.00
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets0% · 29%
- 28 Dec 2025Bologna1–1Sassuolo
- 3 Feb 2024Bologna4–2Sassuolo
- 28 Oct 2023Sassuolo1–1Bologna
- 8 May 2023Sassuolo1–1Bologna
- 12 Nov 2022Bologna3–0Sassuolo
- 15 May 2022Bologna1–3Sassuolo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sassuolo | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 2.54 | 2.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 50% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 25% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Sassuolo | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 1.90 | 2.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sassuolo | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.68 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 8.25 | 8.74 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 15/28 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 10/28 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 5/28 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 4.39 | 4.25 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 19/28 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 11/28 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Sassuolo | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.89 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.20 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Bonacina 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.90league 3.75
Red cards0.30league 0.18
Cards 5+20%league 35%
Fouls24.2league 25.1
Penalties0.30league 0.30
Home wins40%league 39%
SassuoloNo previous matches with this referee.
Bologna1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Nov 25A · Parma3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sassuolo27 games · scored 34 · conceded 36
7
7
0-15
3
6
16-30
4
3
31-45
6
8
46-60
10
4
61-75
4
8
76-90
Bologna28 games · scored 37 · conceded 34
3
0-15
5
2
16-30
8
7
31-45
11
7
46-60
6
9
61-75
7
6
76-90
Sassuolo9 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
