Sassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sassuolo were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Sassuolo had 4 days of rest, Genoa 4.9 and had to travel 138 km.
Away travel138 kmRest days4 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sassuolo40%
Draw29%
Genoa31%
Sassuolo42%
Draw27%
Genoa31%
Sassuolo40%
Draw29%
Genoa31%
Sassuolo33%
Draw29%
Genoa38%
Sassuolo41%
Draw27%
Genoa32%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Reggio Emilia)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyErmanno Feliciani
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 31
Team strength
Sassuolo
Genoa
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
41
AttackIn forecast
23
32
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SassuoloGenoa
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.44
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
67%
Scored inContext
44%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
9.78
ShotsContext
10.56
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
35%
On target shareContext
28%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
61%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
4%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.80
13.11
Shots allowedContext
10.33
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
3.22
BlocksContext
4.33
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
81%
Save rateContext
62%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
370
PassesContext
377
301
Accurate passesContext
296
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.68
13.56
FoulsContext
14.56
15.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.56
2.78
Yellow cardsContext
2.89
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
70%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.60
ShotsContext
10.00
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
35%
On target shareContext
30%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
61%
Box shareContext
55%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.60
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
3.10
BlocksContext
4.43
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
81%
Save rateContext
64%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
364
PassesContext
367
295
Accurate passesContext
286
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.69
13.30
FoulsContext
15.40
15.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sassuolo
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,241 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genoa
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel138 km248 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sassuolo |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Oct | 4.9Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 138 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,241 km | 248 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
42K. Thorstvedt
18N. Matić
90I. Koné
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
3Aarón Martín
2M. Thorsby
32M. Frendrup
17R. Malinovskyi
15B. Norton-Cuffy
29L. Colombo
9Vítinha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sassuolo
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genoa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sassuolo-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Genoa+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Sassuolo · Home
1.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Genoa · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Sassuolo | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Lazio | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Cremonese | L 2–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Napoli | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Sassuolo wins2 draws2 Genoa wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 12 May 2024Genoa2–1Sassuolo
- 22 Dec 2023Sassuolo1–2Genoa
- 6 Jan 2022Sassuolo1–1Genoa
- 17 Oct 2021Genoa2–2Sassuolo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sassuolo | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 0.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.22 | 1.89 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 56% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 44% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 44% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 56% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Sassuolo | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 0.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.22 | 1.89 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 56% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 44% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 44% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 56% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sassuolo | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 9.20 | 8.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.89 | 2.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 5.22 | 5.11 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Sassuolo | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 3.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 6.83 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 10.00 | 8.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.30 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ermanno Feliciani Italy · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.06league 3.93
Red cards0.03league 0.13
Cards 5+16%league 40%
Fouls22.7league 25.9
Penalties0.23league 0.30
Home wins58%league 37%
Sassuolo1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L5 Nov 22A · Empoli0–10
Genoa5 with this referee
Record0-3-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D8 Feb 25A · Torino1–12
- D17 Aug 24H · Inter2–21
- L19 Apr 24H · Lazio0–11
- L9 Mar 24H · Monza2–31
- D3 Feb 24A · Empoli0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sassuolo9 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Genoa9 games · scored 4 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
1
2
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
6
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
