Sassuolo vs Juventus – 6 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 19 Tue, Jan 6 · 19:45 MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia

Sassuolo 10th · 23 pts · 18 played WDLDD

0–3Full time

Juventus 6th · 33 pts · 18 played LWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus were slight favourites.

Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 28). Sassuolo had 3.2 days of rest, Juventus 3.1 and had to travel 236 km.

Away travel236 kmRest days3.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Sassuolo20%

Draw26%

Juventus55%

Expected goals 0.91 – 1.67

Sassuolo21%

Draw24%

Juventus55%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.78

Sassuolo20%

Draw26%

Juventus54%

Expected goals 0.92 – 1.66

Sassuolo15%

Draw23%

Juventus62%

Expected goals 0.81 – 1.87

Sassuolo20%

Draw24%

Juventus56%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.79

Over 2.5 48% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Reggio Emilia)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 32

Team strength

Sassuolo

Juventus

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

41 AttackIn forecast 57

32 DefenceIn forecast 76

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sassuolo

Juventus

1.28 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33

1.22 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.89

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

72% Scored inContext 78%

22% Clean sheetsContext 33%

10.44 ShotsContext 15.39

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.28

36% On target shareContext 34%

6.78 Shots in the boxContext 9.44

65% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.13 OffsidesContext 1.87

13.06 Shots allowedContext 10.28

4.72 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

3.11 BlocksContext 2.83

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.19

72% Save rateContext 70%

46% PossessionIn forecast 57%

389 PassesContext 505

320 Accurate passesContext 437

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.91

12.67 FoulsContext 12.56

13.67 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.44 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.84

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93

+0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.20 ShotsContext 16.50

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

37% On target shareContext 37%

7.40 Shots in the boxContext 11.10

68% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 9%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.11

12.50 Shots allowedContext 10.40

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44

3.10 BlocksContext 3.20

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

63% Save rateContext 83%

48% PossessionIn forecast 56%

408 PassesContext 529

340 Accurate passesContext 460

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.97

12.70 FoulsContext 12.40

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sassuolo

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km121 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Juventus

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel236 km527 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sassuolo	Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Jan	3.1Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	236 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	121 km	527 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

49A. Murić(G)

3J. Doig 80T. Muharemović 21J. Idzes 6S. Walukiewicz

90I. Koné 18N. Matić 44E. Iannoni

45A. Laurienté 99A. Pinamonti 42K. Thorstvedt

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Di Gregorio(G)

8T. Koopmeiners 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

27A. Cambiaso 19K. Thuram 5M. Locatelli 22W. McKennie

10K. Yıldız 21F. Miretti

30J. David

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sassuolo Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Juventus Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sassuolo-0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Juventus+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Sassuolo · Home 1.22points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-4
Scored: 1.22
Conceded: 1.22

Juventus · Away 1.56points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.89

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Sassuolo	Juventus
Parma	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 H
Bologna	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 A
Torino	L 0–1 H	D 0–0 H
AC Milan	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 H
Fiorentina	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 A
Como	L 0–2 A	L 0–2 A
Pisa	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 A
Atalanta	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 H
Genoa	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 A
Cagliari	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
AS Roma	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 H
Lecce	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 H
Verona	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 A
Udinese	W 3–1 H	W 3–1 H
Inter	L 1–2 A	W 4–3 H
Lazio	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Cremonese	L 2–3 A	W 2–1 A
Napoli	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 A
Points	23 of 54 · 1.28 per game	33 of 54 · 1.83 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Sassuolo wins0 draws3 Juventus wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.83 Over 2.583% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 33%

16 Jan 2024Juventus3–0Sassuolo
23 Sep 2023Sassuolo4–2Juventus
16 Apr 2023Sassuolo1–0Juventus
15 Aug 2022Juventus3–0Sassuolo
25 Apr 2022Sassuolo1–2Juventus
27 Oct 2021Juventus1–2Sassuolo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sassuolo	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.28	1.33
Conceded per game	1.22	0.89
Match goals	2.50	2.22	2.58
Over 1.5	72%	72%
Over 2.5	50%	33%	48%
Over 3.5	28%	11%
Both teams scored	56%	56%	49%
Clean sheets	22%	33%
Failed to score	28%	22%
Games	18	18

	Sassuolo	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.50
Conceded per game	1.30	0.80
Match goals	2.80	2.30	2.58
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	49%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sassuolo	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	3.28	5.06
Corners conceded	4.44	4.06
Match total	7.72	9.12	8.84
Over 8.5	50% 9/18	44% 7/16
Over 9.5	33% 6/18	44% 7/16
Over 10.5	11% 2/18	31% 5/16
Cards
Cards	2.56	1.56
Opponent cards	2.00	2.61
Match total	4.56	4.17	4.04
Over 3.5	72% 13/18	61% 11/18
Over 4.5	33% 6/18	50% 9/18

	Sassuolo	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	6.00
Corners conceded	3.90	4.00
Match total	7.50	10.00	8.84
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.40
Opponent cards	1.90	2.60
Match total	4.30	4.00	4.04
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 32 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.84league 3.90

Red cards0.13league 0.17

Cards 5+28%league 38%

Fouls24.2league 25.9

Penalties0.25league 0.30

Home wins56%league 39%

Sassuolo1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L2 Oct 23H · Monza0–10

Juventus4 with this referee

Record2-2-0 Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

D8 Nov 25H · Torino0–00
W12 Apr 25H · Lecce2–10
W2 Feb 25H · Empoli4–10
D30 Oct 24H · Parma2–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.