Sassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Torino were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 29). Sassuolo had 7.1 days of rest, Torino 8 and had to travel 236 km.
Away travel236 kmRest days7.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Sassuolo37%
Draw29%
Torino34%
Sassuolo38%
Draw27%
Torino34%
Sassuolo37%
Draw29%
Torino33%
Sassuolo30%
Draw29%
Torino41%
Sassuolo38%
Draw27%
Torino35%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Reggio Emilia)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAndrea Calzavara
Team strength
Sassuolo
Torino
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
41
AttackIn forecast
39
32
DefenceIn forecast
47
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTorino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SassuoloTorino
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.73
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
73%
Scored inContext
67%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.80
ShotsContext
11.67
3.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
36%
On target shareContext
36%
6.87
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
63%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.77
13.00
Shots allowedContext
14.07
4.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.07
BlocksContext
3.73
3.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.85
73%
Save rateContext
62%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
381
PassesContext
353
314
Accurate passesContext
282
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.40
FoulsContext
13.67
13.73
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.60
ShotsContext
12.20
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
33%
On target shareContext
34%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
63%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.70
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.60
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.70
BlocksContext
3.70
4.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
73%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
382
PassesContext
358
313
Accurate passesContext
284
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.60
FoulsContext
13.90
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sassuolo
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km283 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Torino
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel236 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sassuolo |
Torino |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 8Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 236 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 283 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
90I. Koné
18N. Matić
40A. Vranckx
45A. Laurienté
9W. Cheddira
7C. Volpato
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
44A. Ismajli
13G. Maripán
61A. Tamèze
20V. Lazaro
32K. Asllani
66G. Gineitis
10N. Vlašić
16M. Pedersen
91D. Zapata
19C. Adams
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sassuolo
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Torino
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sassuolo-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Torino+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Sassuolo · Home
1.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-3
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.29
Torino · Away
0.86points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-3
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Sassuolo | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Como | L 0–2 A | L 1–5 H |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Atalanta | W 3–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Genoa | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Inter | L 1–2 A | L 0–5 A |
| Lazio | W 1–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Cremonese | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Napoli | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 12 of 36 · 1.00 per game | 15 of 36 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Sassuolo wins3 draws2 Torino wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.00
Over 2.517%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 10 Feb 2024Sassuolo1–1Torino
- 6 Nov 2023Torino2–1Sassuolo
- 3 Apr 2023Sassuolo1–1Torino
- 17 Sep 2022Torino0–1Sassuolo
- 23 Jan 2022Torino1–1Sassuolo
- 17 Sep 2021Sassuolo0–1Torino
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sassuolo | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.27 | 1.73 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.73 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 47% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 33% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Sassuolo | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sassuolo | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.53 | 4.85 | |
| Match total | 7.93 | 8.85 | 8.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 8/15 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 5/15 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 7% 1/15 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.53 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.53 | |
| Match total | 4.66 | 3.33 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 11/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 5/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Sassuolo | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 8.45 | 8.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.40 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Sassuolo15 games · scored 21 · conceded 19
5
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
7
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Torino15 games · scored 15 · conceded 26
1
2
0-15
3
7
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
4
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
3
5
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
