SC Braga
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
SC Braga64.2%fair odds 1.56
Draw21.5%fair odds 4.65
Estoril14.3%fair odds 7.00
Expected goals2.02 – 0.84total 2.86
Likeliest score2–011.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Estoril
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| SC Braga ↓ · Estoril → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Braga goals, columns Estoril goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.6%8.59
- 1–011.0%9.08
- 1–110.2%9.76
- 2–19.8%10.18
- 3–07.8%12.77
- 3–16.6%15.13
- 0–06.2%16.06
- 0–14.3%23.23
- 2–24.1%24.13
- 1–24.1%24.35
Winning margin
20.3%
SC Braga by 3+
fair 4.92
19.8%
SC Braga by 2
fair 5.04
24.1%
SC Braga by 1
fair 4.16
21.5%
Draw
fair 4.65
9.8%
Estoril by 1
fair 10.25
3.5%
Estoril by 2
fair 28.86
1.1%
Estoril by 3+
fair 94.25
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
SC Braga goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
Estoril goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Braga win | 64.2% | 62.9% | +1.3 pp |
| Draw | 21.5% | 22.3% | -0.8 pp |
| Estoril win | 14.3% | 14.8% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 52.4% | +2.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.9% | 48.9% | +1.1 pp |
| Expected goals SC Braga | 2.02 | 1.94 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals Estoril | 0.84 | 0.83 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- SC Braga win64.2%1.56
- Draw21.5%4.65
- Estoril win14.3%7.00
- Double chance SC Braga or draw85.7%1.17
- Double chance SC Braga or Estoril78.5%1.27
- Double chance Estoril or draw35.8%2.80
- Draw no bet SC Braga81.8%1.22
- Draw no bet Estoril18.2%5.50
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.578.5%1.27
- Over 2.554.5%1.83
- Over 3.532.2%3.11
- Over 4.516.2%6.16
- Under 1.521.5%4.64
- Under 2.545.5%2.20
- Under 3.567.8%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes49.9%2.00
- No50.1%2.00
- Yes and over 2.539.7%2.52
- SC Braga win and yes27.5%3.64
- Draw and yes15.3%6.55
- Estoril win and yes7.2%13.83
Team goals
- SC Braga over 0.586.7%1.15
- SC Braga over 1.559.9%1.67
- SC Braga over 2.532.8%3.05
- Estoril over 0.557.0%1.75
- Estoril over 1.520.7%4.83
- Estoril over 2.55.4%18.53
- SC Braga clean sheet43.0%2.33
- Estoril clean sheet13.3%7.53
- SC Braga win to nil36.8%2.72
- Estoril win to nil7.1%14.17
Handicap
- SC Braga −1.540.2%2.49
- SC Braga −2.520.3%4.92
- Estoril +1.559.8%1.67
- Estoril +2.579.7%1.26
- Estoril −1.54.5%22.09
- SC Braga +1.595.5%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored52
Favourite won51.9%
Avg chance given to result45.1%
1X2 Brier0.542
Over 2.5 called right59.6%
BTTS called right51.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 10 | 38.4% | 30.0% |
| 40–50% | 10 | 44.6% | 10.0% |
| 50–60% | 13 | 53.2% | 61.5% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 65.0% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 74.8% | 90.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 84.5% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 18 of 52 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5416 | 0.5569 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.8% | 45.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 38.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 52 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.