SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were clear favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estoril. SC Braga had 4 days of rest, Estoril 7 and had to travel 327 km.
Away travel327 kmRest days4 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
SC Braga65%
Draw20%
Estoril15%
SC Braga67%
Draw19%
Estoril14%
SC Braga65%
Draw20%
Estoril15%
SC Braga57%
Draw23%
Estoril20%
SC Braga63%
Draw21%
Estoril15%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
SC Braga
Estoril
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
42
AttackIn forecast
21
59
DefenceIn forecast
29
51
Form indexContext
11
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaEstoril
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
0.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
-0.46
100%
Scored inContext
40%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.40
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
39%
On target shareContext
39%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
62%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
3%
2.75
OffsidesContext
—
7.25
Shots allowedContext
13.20
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
1.25
BlocksContext
5.25
1.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
58%
Save rateContext
63%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
598
PassesContext
390
514
Accurate passesContext
313
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.77
15.00
FoulsContext
12.00
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
100%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.30
ShotsContext
10.80
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
38%
On target shareContext
36%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
58%
Box shareContext
58%
15%
ConversionContext
5%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.40
11.10
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.67
BlocksContext
4.25
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
61%
Save rateContext
61%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
522
PassesContext
424
444
Accurate passesContext
349
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.90
FoulsContext
12.40
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
DWWL
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,236 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 51 · 7 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected
Estoril
DLLLD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel327 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 11 · 2 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -3.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
Estoril |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 10 Sep | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 7 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 327 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,236 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
14G. Lagerbielke
37A. Barišić
77Gabri Martínez
34D. Tıknaz
8João Moutinho
2Víctor Gómez
10Pau Víctor
17J. Milošević
11Gabriel Silva
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
21R. Jurišić
15Isma Sierra
4Ferro
2Ricard Sánchez
44M. Robin
10J. Holsgrove
11N. Omerović
12João Carvalho
98Fabrício Garcia
14Y. Begraoui
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estoril+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Estoril · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 SC Braga wins2 draws1 Estoril wins
Goals per game1.88 – 0.75
Over 2.538%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 13%
- 3 May 2026SC Braga1–1Estoril
- 19 Dec 2025Estoril1–0SC Braga
- 19 Apr 2025Estoril0–2SC Braga
- 6 Dec 2024SC Braga2–2Estoril
- 13 Apr 2024Estoril0–1SC Braga
- 3 Dec 2023SC Braga3–1Estoril
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 1.80 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 20% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 60% | |
| Games | 4 | 5 |
| SC Braga | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.90 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 20% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 6.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 10.75 | 8.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 3.40 | 4.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| SC Braga | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 9.89 | 8.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 3.70 | 4.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
SC Braga3 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Estoril5 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
SC Braga9 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
4
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
5
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
