SC Braga
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
SC Braga57.7%fair odds 1.73
Draw23.0%fair odds 4.34
FK Crvena Zvezda19.3%fair odds 5.18
Expected goals1.93 – 1.03total 2.96
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FK Crvena Zvezda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| SC Braga ↓ · FK Crvena Zvezda → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Braga goals, columns FK Crvena Zvezda goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.20
- 2–19.9%10.06
- 2–09.6%10.38
- 1–09.5%10.57
- 3–16.4%15.67
- 3–06.2%16.17
- 0–05.7%17.42
- 1–25.3%18.78
- 2–25.1%19.50
- 0–14.8%20.78
Winning margin
16.6%
SC Braga by 3+
fair 6.04
17.8%
SC Braga by 2
fair 5.61
23.3%
SC Braga by 1
fair 4.29
23.0%
Draw
fair 4.34
12.2%
FK Crvena Zvezda by 1
fair 8.18
5.1%
FK Crvena Zvezda by 2
fair 19.54
2.0%
FK Crvena Zvezda by 3+
fair 50.70
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
SC Braga goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
FK Crvena Zvezda goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Braga win | 57.7% | 56.1% | +1.5 pp |
| Draw | 23.0% | 24.0% | -1.0 pp |
| FK Crvena Zvezda win | 19.3% | 19.8% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 53.3% | +3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.5% | 53.3% | +2.2 pp |
| Expected goals SC Braga | 1.93 | 1.82 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals FK Crvena Zvezda | 1.03 | 0.99 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- SC Braga win57.7%1.73
- Draw23.0%4.34
- FK Crvena Zvezda win19.3%5.18
- Double chance SC Braga or draw80.7%1.24
- Double chance SC Braga or FK Crvena Zvezda77.0%1.30
- Double chance FK Crvena Zvezda or draw42.3%2.36
- Draw no bet SC Braga74.9%1.33
- Draw no bet FK Crvena Zvezda25.1%3.99
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.0%1.25
- Over 2.556.7%1.76
- Over 3.534.3%2.91
- Over 4.517.8%5.63
- Under 1.520.0%5.00
- Under 2.543.3%2.31
- Under 3.565.7%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes55.5%1.80
- No44.5%2.25
- Yes and over 2.544.7%2.24
- SC Braga win and yes27.8%3.60
- Draw and yes17.3%5.79
- FK Crvena Zvezda win and yes10.5%9.54
Team goals
- SC Braga over 0.585.4%1.17
- SC Braga over 1.557.4%1.74
- SC Braga over 2.530.3%3.30
- FK Crvena Zvezda over 0.564.4%1.55
- FK Crvena Zvezda over 1.527.6%3.62
- FK Crvena Zvezda over 2.58.6%11.60
- SC Braga clean sheet35.6%2.81
- FK Crvena Zvezda clean sheet14.6%6.86
- SC Braga win to nil29.9%3.35
- FK Crvena Zvezda win to nil8.8%11.32
Handicap
- SC Braga −1.534.4%2.91
- SC Braga −2.516.6%6.04
- FK Crvena Zvezda +1.565.6%1.52
- FK Crvena Zvezda +2.583.4%1.20
- FK Crvena Zvezda −1.57.1%14.11
- SC Braga +1.592.9%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won52.8%
Avg chance given to result39.4%
1X2 Brier0.593
Over 2.5 called right44.4%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.8% | 60.0% |
| 40–50% | 17 | 44.4% | 35.3% |
| 50–60% | 11 | 54.8% | 72.7% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 65.3% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 18 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5928 | 0.6390 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.5% | 37.9% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 55.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.