SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were slight favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 40). SC Braga had 17.9 days of rest, FK Crvena Zvezda 20.9 and had to travel 2,357 km.
Away travel2,357 kmRest days17.9 · 20.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
SC Braga58%
Draw23%
FK Crvena Zvezda19%
SC Braga57%
Draw24%
FK Crvena Zvezda19%
SC Braga58%
Draw23%
FK Crvena Zvezda19%
SC Braga50%
Draw25%
FK Crvena Zvezda25%
SC Braga56%
Draw24%
FK Crvena Zvezda20%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
Referee · NorwayEspen Eskas
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 17
Team strength
SC Braga
FK Crvena Zvezda
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
42
42
AttackIn forecast
40
59
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFK Crvena Zvezda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaFK Crvena Zvezda
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
0.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.04
+0.63
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
100%
Scored inContext
100%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.50
ShotsContext
12.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
38%
On target shareContext
25%
—
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
—
Box shareContext
72%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
7.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
—
BlocksContext
2.50
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
100%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
414
PassesContext
416
342
Accurate passesContext
346
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.00
FoulsContext
10.00
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.60
ShotsContext
16.00
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.43
39%
On target shareContext
28%
8.83
Shots in the boxContext
11.57
60%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.33
7.50
Shots allowedContext
11.71
2.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
2.29
BlocksContext
2.29
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
78%
Save rateContext
67%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
545
PassesContext
402
464
Accurate passesContext
330
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.50
FoulsContext
11.00
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.14
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
Rest17.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FK Crvena Zvezda
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel2,357 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
FK Crvena Zvezda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 17.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 20.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,357 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
14G. Lagerbielke
2Víctor Gómez
5Leonardo Lelo
8João Moutinho
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
77Gabri Martínez
21Ricardo Horta
10R. Zalazar
39Fran Navarro
FK Crvena Zvezda
Confirmed XI
1Matheus(G)
23N. Tiknizyan
30F. Tebo Uchenna
5Rodrigão
66Y. Seol
20Tomás Händel
33R. Krunić
4M. Ivanić
22V. Kostov
49N. Radonjić
89M. Arnautović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FK Crvena Zvezda
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- FK Crvena Zvezda+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
FK Crvena Zvezda · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | SC Braga | FK Crvena Zvezda |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | FK Crvena Zvezda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| SC Braga | FK Crvena Zvezda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.50 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | FK Crvena Zvezda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.00 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.50 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| SC Braga | FK Crvena Zvezda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 6.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.22 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 11.29 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.50 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Espen Eskas Norway · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.12league 4.08
Red cards0.24league 0.14
Cards 5+47%league 42%
Fouls23.1league 25.7
Penalties0.41league 0.36
Home wins41%league 42%
SC BragaNo previous matches with this referee.
FK Crvena Zvezda1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L6 Nov 24H · Barcelona2–52
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga2 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
FK Crvena Zvezda2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
46-60
61-75
9
1
76-90
FK Crvena Zvezda10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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