SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were clear favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 39). Absences weigh more on Genk. SC Braga had 4 days of rest, Genk 4.3 and had to travel 1,493 km.
Away travel1,493 kmRest days4 · 4.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
SC Braga61%
Draw21%
Genk17%
SC Braga58%
Draw23%
Genk18%
SC Braga59%
Draw22%
Genk18%
SC Braga53%
Draw24%
Genk23%
SC Braga60%
Draw23%
Genk18%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
Referee · HungaryBalazs Berke
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 12
Team strength
SC Braga
Genk
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
42
AttackIn forecast
46
59
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaGenk
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
0.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
-1.03
100%
Scored inContext
33%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
10.67
ShotsContext
12.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
38%
On target shareContext
22%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
62%
Box shareContext
57%
16%
ConversionContext
3%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.33
7.33
Shots allowedContext
9.00
2.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
3.00
BlocksContext
3.50
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
100%
Save rateContext
80%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
445
PassesContext
461
371
Accurate passesContext
397
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.00
FoulsContext
11.00
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
0.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
14.10
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
40%
On target shareContext
33%
7.63
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
59%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.33
8.50
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.63
BlocksContext
3.38
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
77%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
539
PassesContext
528
460
Accurate passesContext
456
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.70
FoulsContext
11.30
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km95 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,493 km87 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 4.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,493 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 95 km | 87 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
5Leonardo Lelo
26B. Arrey-Mbi
14G. Lagerbielke
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
8João Moutinho
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
10R. Zalazar
9A. El Ouazzani
77Gabri Martínez
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
27K. Nkuba
14Y. Sor
8B. Heynen
17P. Hrošovský
20K. Karetsas
38D. Heymans
9H. Oh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Genk-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Genk · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 0.67 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| SC Braga | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 1.90 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 8.34 | 5.67 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 2.34 | 4.00 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| SC Braga | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.90 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 7.80 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.50 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Balazs Berke Hungary · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 4.02
Red cards0.50league 0.16
Cards 5+42%league 40%
Fouls23.7league 24.9
Penalties0.25league 0.43
Home wins58%league 48%
SC BragaNo previous matches with this referee.
GenkNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga3 games · scored 5 · conceded 0
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Genk3 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
2
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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