SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were clear favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 26). SC Braga usually keep the ball (62% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. SC Braga had 14 days of rest, GIL Vicente 16 and had to travel 16 km.
Away travel16 kmRest days14 · 16Matches / 14d1 · 0
SC Braga67%
Draw20%
GIL Vicente13%
SC Braga67%
Draw20%
GIL Vicente13%
SC Braga67%
Draw20%
GIL Vicente13%
SC Braga60%
Draw23%
GIL Vicente17%
SC Braga67%
Draw20%
GIL Vicente13%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
RefereeJosé Bessa
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 20
Team strength
SC Braga
GIL Vicente
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
42
AttackIn forecast
32
59
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaGIL Vicente
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.60
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
15.00
ShotsContext
13.75
6.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
42%
On target shareContext
29%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.25
57%
Box shareContext
61%
17%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
6.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
1.50
BlocksContext
2.75
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
82%
71%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
632
PassesContext
330
561
Accurate passesContext
266
89%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.00
FoulsContext
14.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
17.25
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
+0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
100%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
16.00
ShotsContext
11.00
6.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
41%
On target shareContext
30%
9.17
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
57%
Box shareContext
59%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.86
5.75
Shots allowedContext
11.50
2.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
2.00
BlocksContext
2.80
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
64%
Save rateContext
79%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
556
PassesContext
349
484
Accurate passesContext
275
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.50
FoulsContext
13.10
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km69 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GIL Vicente
Rest16 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel16 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 16Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 16 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 69 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
5Leonardo Lelo
4S. Niakaté
15Paulo Oliveira
2Víctor Gómez
18Pau Víctor
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
8João Moutinho
77Gabri Martínez
39Fran Navarro
9A. El Ouazzani
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
42Andrew(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
10Luís Esteves
5F. Cáseres
27Agustín Moreira
95Santi García
77Murilo
9Pablo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
GIL Vicente · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 SC Braga wins2 draws0 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 17%
- 9 Feb 2025SC Braga2–0GIL Vicente
- 1 Sep 2024GIL Vicente0–0SC Braga
- 16 Mar 2024SC Braga2–1GIL Vicente
- 28 Oct 2023GIL Vicente3–3SC Braga
- 16 Apr 2023SC Braga1–0GIL Vicente
- 30 Oct 2022GIL Vicente0–1SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 1.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| SC Braga | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 1.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.33 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 10.75 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 5.50 | 5.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| SC Braga | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.67 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.11 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.60 | 5.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Bessa 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.45league 5.05
Red cards0.35league 0.19
Cards 5+50%league 60%
Fouls24.6league 27.6
Penalties0.20league 0.30
Home wins55%league 35%
SC BragaNo previous matches with this referee.
GIL Vicente4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L6 Apr 25H · Moreirense0–13
- W20 Apr 24A · Moreirense1–00
- L6 Jan 24A · Farense0–12
- L4 Nov 23A · Famalicao1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga4 games · scored 10 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
GIL Vicente4 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 25 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
7
3
16-30
7
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
7
2
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
