SC Braga vs Guimaraes – 21 Feb 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 23 Sat, Feb 21 · 20:30 Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

SC Braga 5th · 39 pts · 22 played WWWWL

3–2Full time

Guimaraes 8th · 31 pts · 22 played LLWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Braga were clear favourites.

SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for SC Braga. SC Braga had 7 days of rest, Guimaraes 7.1 and had to travel 16 km.

Away travel16 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

SC Braga60%

Draw23%

Guimaraes17%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.89

SC Braga59%

Draw23%

Guimaraes18%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.95

SC Braga60%

Draw23%

Guimaraes17%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.89

SC Braga53%

Draw25%

Guimaraes22%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.00

SC Braga60%

Draw23%

Guimaraes17%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.92

Over 2.5 53% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Braga)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 94

Team strength

SC Braga

Guimaraes

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

42 AttackIn forecast 28

59 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Braga

Guimaraes

2.05 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

0.91 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.41

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.18

0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

86% Scored inContext 64%

41% Clean sheetsContext 32%

12.64 ShotsContext 13.14

5.09 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.68

40% On target shareContext 28%

8.57 Shots in the boxContext 7.27

67% Box shareContext 56%

16% ConversionContext 9%

2.07 OffsidesContext 2.11

8.09 Shots allowedContext 11.55

3.05 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.41

2.32 BlocksContext 3.11

2.32 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.09

72% Save rateContext 70%

64% PossessionIn forecast 50%

602 PassesContext 364

528 Accurate passesContext 296

88% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.78

10.86 FoulsContext 14.55

11.73 Fouls sufferedContext 15.18

1.73 Yellow cardsContext 2.45

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.30

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

80% Scored inContext 70%

60% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.80 ShotsContext 14.20

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

39% On target shareContext 27%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

69% Box shareContext 60%

19% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

9.00 Shots allowedContext 10.10

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

2.00 BlocksContext 2.63

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

72% Save rateContext 62%

60% PossessionIn forecast 51%

572 PassesContext 371

497 Accurate passesContext 302

87% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.76

10.20 FoulsContext 16.00

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 15.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Braga

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km33 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Guimaraes

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel16 km115 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Braga	Guimaraes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Feb	7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	16 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	33 km	115 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Braga Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1L. Horníček(G)

26B. Arrey-Mbi 14G. Lagerbielke 37A. Barišić

50D. Rodrigues 27F. Grillitsch 8João Moutinho 2Víctor Gómez

10R. Zalazar 18Pau Víctor 21Ricardo Horta

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

27Charles(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 3M. Nóbrega 28Thiago Balieiro 66T. Strata

23Diogo Sousa 16Beni

48N. Saviolo 20Samu 11Gustavo Silva

7Nélson Oliveira

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Braga Absences are shown before kick-off

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SC Braga+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Guimaraes+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Braga · Home 2.00points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 6-2-2
Scored: 2.20
Conceded: 0.70

Guimaraes · Away 1.00points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-6
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	SC Braga	Guimaraes
GIL Vicente	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	D 0–0 H
Rio Ave	W 3–0 HD 2–2 A	W 1–0 A
AVS	W 4–0 AD 2–2 H	W 4–0 H
Alverca	W 5–0 HW 3–0 A	L 0–2 A
Tondela	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	W 1–0 A
Estrela	D 3–3 A	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A
Benfica	D 2–2 H	L 0–3 H
Estoril	L 0–1 A	L 2–4 AW 3–2 H
Santa Clara	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Famalicao	W 2–1 A	L 0–2 A
Arouca	W 4–0 A	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H
Moreirense	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 HL 0–2 A
FC Porto	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Casa Pia	W 4–0 H	D 0–0 A
Sporting CP	D 1–1 A	L 1–4 H
Nacional	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 H
Points	38 of 63 · 1.81 per game	30 of 63 · 1.43 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 SC Braga wins3 draws2 Guimaraes wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.14 Over 2.529% Both scored57% Clean sheets29% · 29%

20 Sep 2025Guimaraes1–1SC Braga
16 Feb 2025Guimaraes0–0SC Braga
15 Sep 2024SC Braga0–2Guimaraes
11 May 2024Guimaraes2–3SC Braga
6 Jan 2024SC Braga1–1Guimaraes
27 Feb 2023Guimaraes2–1SC Braga

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	SC Braga	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	2.05	1.14
Conceded per game	0.91	1.41
Match goals	2.95	2.55	2.79
Over 1.5	77%	73%
Over 2.5	68%	45%	53%
Over 3.5	36%	23%
Both teams scored	45%	41%	51%
Clean sheets	41%	32%
Failed to score	14%	36%
Games	22	22

	SC Braga	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.10
Conceded per game	0.80	1.40
Match goals	2.80	2.50	2.79
Over 1.5	60%	50%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	60%	40%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Braga	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	5.47	4.50
Corners conceded	2.95	3.32
Match total	8.42	7.82	9.21
Over 8.5	42% 8/19	45% 10/22
Over 9.5	32% 6/19	32% 7/22
Over 10.5	32% 6/19	18% 4/22
Cards
Cards	1.82	2.59
Opponent cards	2.45	3.05
Match total	4.27	5.64	5.23
Over 3.5	68% 15/22	77% 17/22
Over 4.5	45% 10/22	73% 16/22

	SC Braga	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.56	4.90
Corners conceded	3.11	3.30
Match total	7.67	8.20	9.21
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	3.00
Opponent cards	2.10	3.20
Match total	3.90	6.20	5.23
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	90% 9/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 94 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.43league 4.89

Red cards0.20league 0.29

Cards 5+46%league 59%

Fouls25.7league 26.9

Penalties0.24league 0.44

Home wins40%league 41%

SC Braga9 with this referee

Record5-2-2 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

W9 Nov 25H · Moreirense2–13
W19 Apr 25A · Estoril2–00
L6 Oct 24A · FC Porto1–22
L27 Apr 24A · Benfica1–34
W4 Feb 24H · Moreirense1–01

Guimaraes10 with this referee

Record4-3-3 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.9 Pens for · against3 · 1 Reds1

L1 Nov 25H · Benfica0–34
L23 Aug 25A · Moreirense0–22
W9 Mar 25A · Boavista2–11
D23 Dec 24H · Nacional2–21
L25 Aug 24A · AVS0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.