SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were slight favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Guimaraes. SC Braga had 22 days of rest, Guimaraes 8.2 and had to travel 16 km.
Away travel16 kmRest days22 · 8.2Matches / 14d0 · 1
SC Braga57%
Draw22%
Guimaraes21%
SC Braga64%
Draw21%
Guimaraes16%
SC Braga57%
Draw22%
Guimaraes21%
SC Braga49%
Draw24%
Guimaraes27%
SC Braga56%
Draw23%
Guimaraes21%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndré Narciso
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 46
Team strength
SC Braga
Guimaraes
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
42
AttackIn forecast
28
59
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
36
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGuimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaGuimaraes
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
—
xGVia Att/Def
2.22
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.66
—
Goals minus xGContext
-1.22
—
Scored inContext
67%
—
Clean sheetsContext
33%
—
ShotsContext
19.67
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
—
On target shareContext
19%
—
Shots in the boxContext
13.33
—
Box shareContext
72%
—
ConversionContext
5%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
—
Shots allowedContext
5.33
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
—
BlocksContext
1.67
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
50%
—
PossessionIn forecast
50%
—
PassesContext
425
—
Accurate passesContext
355
—
Pass accuracyContext
84%
—
Team ratingContext
6.86
—
FoulsContext
16.00
—
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
—
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
—
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
100%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.30
ShotsContext
14.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
38%
On target shareContext
27%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
58%
Box shareContext
63%
19%
ConversionContext
9%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.78
11.20
Shots allowedContext
8.00
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.13
BlocksContext
2.00
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
59%
Save rateContext
71%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
534
PassesContext
422
457
Accurate passesContext
349
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.40
FoulsContext
12.90
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
D
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 45 · 1 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
- D9 AugA · Moreirense2–21.8 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
Guimaraes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 Aug | 8.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 16 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
22Sergio Barcia
6Vitor Carvalho
14G. Lagerbielke
7Diogo Travassos
8João Moutinho
34D. Tıknaz
2Víctor Gómez
11Gabriel Silva
20M. Dorgeles
10Pau Víctor
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
48O. Zych(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
28Thiago Balieiro
4Óscar Rivas
23T. Strata
44L. Doucet
8Gonçalo Nogueira
17M. Nogueira
20Samu
11Gustavo Silva
24A. Ndoye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
No home games yet this season.
Guimaraes · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 SC Braga wins3 draws2 Guimaraes wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.25
Over 2.538%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 21 Feb 2026SC Braga3–2Guimaraes
- 20 Sep 2025Guimaraes1–1SC Braga
- 16 Feb 2025Guimaraes0–0SC Braga
- 15 Sep 2024SC Braga0–2Guimaraes
- 11 May 2024Guimaraes2–3SC Braga
- 6 Jan 2024SC Braga1–1Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.33 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 1 | 3 |
| SC Braga | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.60 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 30% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 30% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 6.66 | 8.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 67% 2/3 | |
| SC Braga | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 7.80 | 8.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 10/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · André Narciso 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.09league 3.94
Red cards0.22league 0.16
Cards 5+61%league 32%
Fouls28.3league 25.5
Penalties0.28league 0.29
Home wins52%league 39%
SC Braga6 with this referee
Record6-0-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Apr 24H · Vizela2–11
- W18 Feb 24H · Farense2–15
- W29 Apr 23H · Portimonense4–11
- W14 Jan 23H · Boavista1–02
- W22 Oct 22A · Estoril2–01
Guimaraes7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W1 Mar 25H · Casa Pia1–04
- D8 Feb 25A · Famalicao0–02
- W18 Aug 24H · Estoril1–02
- W19 Aug 23H · GIL Vicente2–13
- L14 Apr 23A · Famalicao1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga1 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Guimaraes3 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
4
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
