UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 22 · 20:00 Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga
SC Braga 8th · 13 pts · 6 played
1–0Full time
Nottingham Forest 14th · 11 pts · 6 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

SC Braga were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. SC Braga had 4.1 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 5.1 and had to travel 1,380 km.

Away travel1,380 kmRest days4.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
SC Braga44%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest30%
Expected goals 1.58 – 1.28
SC Braga43%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest31%
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.21
SC Braga44%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest30%
Expected goals 1.58 – 1.27
SC Braga36%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest37%
Expected goals 1.41 – 1.43
SC Braga42%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest31%
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22
Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)

No weather data yet

RefereeIgor Pajač
  • Cards per match 3.5
  • Penalties per match 0.29
  • Matches 21

Team strength

SC BragaNottingham Forest
63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64
56 Current StrengthIn forecast 70
42 AttackIn forecast 68
59 DefenceIn forecast 74
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Braga

Attack—
Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC BragaNottingham Forest
1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83
0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.42 xGVia Att/Def 2.01
0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.64
+0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.18
100% Scored inContext 83%
67% Clean sheetsContext 50%
11.67 ShotsContext 15.67
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
39% On target shareContext 42%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
66% Box shareContext 66%
14% ConversionContext 12%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.00
8.83 Shots allowedContext 6.33
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.83
2.60 BlocksContext 3.00
3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50
79% Save rateContext 53%
53% PossessionIn forecast 56%
486 PassesContext 490
411 Accurate passesContext 427
85% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.96 Team ratingContext 6.93
11.17 FoulsContext 13.83
12.17 Fouls sufferedContext 14.33
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.33
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.33
1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31
-0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.13
90% Scored inContext 60%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.80 ShotsContext 14.00
4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.44
39% On target shareContext 35%
8.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.40
74% Box shareContext 59%
14% ConversionContext 9%
1.40 OffsidesContext 2.17
8.60 Shots allowedContext 12.10
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
2.63 BlocksContext 4.70
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33
79% Save rateContext 62%
62% PossessionIn forecast 50%
581 PassesContext 447
507 Accurate passesContext 373
87% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.81
12.50 FoulsContext 11.10
12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Braga
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km237 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Nottingham Forest
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,380 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SC Braga Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 18 Jan5.1Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,380 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways237 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 5
Next matchdays after this one32.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Braga Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi 4S. Niakaté 14G. Lagerbielke
77Gabri Martínez 27F. Grillitsch 29Jean-Baptiste Gorby 2Víctor Gómez
50D. Rodrigues 21Ricardo Horta
39Fran Navarro
+5 more reported missing outside this XI
Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI
4-4-2
26M. Sels(G)
34T. Aina 4Morato 31N. Milenković 37N. Savona
29D. Bakwa 22R. Yates 12Douglas Luiz 24J. McAtee
14D. Ndoye 10M. Gibbs-White
+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SC Braga Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • SC Braga-0.3 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Nottingham Forest+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Braga · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.33
Nottingham Forest · Away 1.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-2-0
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

SC BragaNottingham ForestForecast
Scored per game 1.671.83
Conceded per game 0.831.00
Match goals 2.502.83 2.85
Over 1.5 67%83%
Over 2.5 17%67% 54%
Over 3.5 17%33%
Both teams scored 33%50% 58%
Clean sheets 67%50%
Failed to score 0%17%
Games66
SC BragaNottingham ForestForecast
Scored per game 1.701.00
Conceded per game 0.901.30
Match goals 2.602.30 2.85
Over 1.5 60%70%
Over 2.5 50%60% 54%
Over 3.5 30%10%
Both teams scored 50%40% 58%
Clean sheets 40%30%
Failed to score 10%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SC BragaNottingham ForestLeague
Corners
Corners won4.835.25
Corners conceded4.176.25
Match total9.0011.509.10
Over 8.567% 4/675% 3/4
Over 9.550% 3/675% 3/4
Over 10.533% 2/675% 3/4
Cards
Cards1.832.33
Opponent cards2.171.83
Match total4.004.164.35
Over 3.533% 2/683% 5/6
Over 4.533% 2/650% 3/6
SC BragaNottingham ForestLeague
Corners
Corners won4.785.00
Corners conceded4.225.00
Match total9.0010.009.10
Over 8.544% 4/970% 7/10
Over 9.544% 4/960% 6/10
Over 10.533% 3/950% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.401.90
Opponent cards2.802.20
Match total5.204.104.35
Over 3.590% 9/1050% 5/10
Over 4.560% 6/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Igor Pajač 21 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.38league 4.12
Red cards0.10league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 42%
Fouls22.7league 24.2
Penalties0.29league 0.36
Home wins57%league 49%
SC Braga2 with this referee
Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W28 Nov 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–00
  • W15 Aug 24A · Servette FC2–12
Nottingham Forest

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

SC Braga6 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
0-15
4 16-30
2 31-45
2 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 76-90
Nottingham Forest6 games · scored 11 · conceded 6
1 0-15
5 2 16-30
1 31-45
2 46-60
1 61-75
3 2 76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
2 0-15
3 2 16-30
5 3 31-45
1 1 46-60
5 2 61-75
1 1 76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2 0-15
1 1 16-30
5 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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