SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were clear favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for SC Braga. SC Braga had 6 days of rest, Rio Ave 8 and had to travel 35 km.
Away travel35 kmRest days6 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1
SC Braga75%
Draw17%
Rio Ave8%
SC Braga72%
Draw18%
Rio Ave10%
SC Braga75%
Draw17%
Rio Ave8%
SC Braga69%
Draw20%
Rio Ave11%
SC Braga75%
Draw17%
Rio Ave8%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 58
Team strength
SC Braga
Rio Ave
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
42
AttackIn forecast
18
59
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaRio Ave
2.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
85%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.65
ShotsContext
8.80
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.24
41%
On target shareContext
41%
8.68
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
67%
Box shareContext
64%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.67
7.80
Shots allowedContext
16.85
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
2.18
BlocksContext
4.40
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
72%
Save rateContext
65%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
609
PassesContext
370
535
Accurate passesContext
307
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.40
FoulsContext
12.60
12.15
Fouls sufferedContext
14.85
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
80%
Scored inContext
50%
70%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.80
ShotsContext
8.60
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
42%
On target shareContext
41%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
5.88
70%
Box shareContext
64%
18%
ConversionContext
11%
2.20
OffsidesContext
3.00
8.30
Shots allowedContext
16.20
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
1.70
BlocksContext
4.10
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
77%
Save rateContext
61%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
601
PassesContext
379
525
Accurate passesContext
319
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.40
FoulsContext
11.40
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
15.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,241 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Rio Ave
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel35 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Feb | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 35 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,241 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
14G. Lagerbielke
37A. Barišić
77Gabri Martínez
8João Moutinho
27F. Grillitsch
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
10R. Zalazar
18Pau Víctor
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
99E. van der Gouw(G)
6N. Abbey
39Gustavo Mancha
32J. Brabec
77O. Richards
54G. Liavas
44T. Nikitscher
17M. Vrousai
19A. Papakanellos
7Diogo Bezerra
9Tamble Monteiro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
1.89points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-2
- Scored
- 2.11
- Conceded
- 0.78
Rio Ave · Away
1.10points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | SC Braga | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| AVS | W 4–0 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Alverca | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Tondela | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Estrela | D 3–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Benfica | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Estoril | L 0–1 A | L 0–4 H |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Famalicao | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Arouca | W 4–0 A | L 0–3 HD 3–3 A |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| FC Porto | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Casa Pia | W 4–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| Nacional | L 0–1 H | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 35 of 57 · 1.84 per game | 19 of 57 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 SC Braga wins2 draws1 Rio Ave wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.571%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 14%
- 31 Aug 2025Rio Ave2–2SC Braga
- 2 Mar 2025Rio Ave2–1SC Braga
- 29 Sep 2024SC Braga4–0Rio Ave
- 9 Mar 2024Rio Ave0–0SC Braga
- 7 Oct 2023SC Braga2–1Rio Ave
- 5 Mar 2023SC Braga2–0Rio Ave
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.05 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 3.00 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 65% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 55% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 40% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| SC Braga | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.90 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.94 | 6.95 | |
| Match total | 8.23 | 10.84 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 35% 6/17 | 79% 15/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 5/17 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 5/17 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.55 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.45 | 5.10 | 5.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 15/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 10/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| SC Braga | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.11 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 10.80 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.70 | 5.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.14league 4.91
Red cards0.29league 0.29
Cards 5+47%league 59%
Fouls25.4league 27.1
Penalties0.22league 0.46
Home wins41%league 40%
SC Braga4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds1
- W1 Dec 25A · Arouca4–00
- W17 Aug 25A · Alverca3–01
- D17 May 25H · Benfica1–14
- W5 Jan 23A · Santa Clara4–01
Rio Ave6 with this referee
Record1-3-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L1 Nov 25H · Estoril0–43
- D16 Mar 24A · Farense1–11
- D12 Nov 23A · GIL Vicente1–11
- L14 May 23H · Guimaraes0–10
- D16 Apr 23H · Casa Pia1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga20 games · scored 41 · conceded 18
7
2
0-15
10
5
16-30
8
6
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
8
2
76-90
Rio Ave20 games · scored 22 · conceded 38
2
2
0-15
4
5
16-30
3
8
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
8
61-75
5
8
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 18 · conceded 6
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
