SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were clear favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 25). SC Braga usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. SC Braga had 4 days of rest, Santa Clara 9.1 and had to travel 1,533 km.
Away travel1,533 kmRest days4 · 9.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
SC Braga69%
Draw20%
Santa Clara12%
SC Braga68%
Draw20%
Santa Clara12%
SC Braga69%
Draw20%
Santa Clara12%
SC Braga62%
Draw23%
Santa Clara16%
SC Braga68%
Draw20%
Santa Clara12%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalBruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 6
Team strength
SC Braga
Santa Clara
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
42
AttackIn forecast
29
59
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSanta Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaSanta Clara
1.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.85
0.92
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.08
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
85%
Scored inContext
69%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
13.77
ShotsContext
11.38
5.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.62
38%
On target shareContext
32%
9.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
64%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.20
7.62
Shots allowedContext
9.77
2.69
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.60
BlocksContext
2.13
2.09
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.09
72%
Save rateContext
76%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
599
PassesContext
367
524
Accurate passesContext
296
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.85
FoulsContext
13.62
12.69
Fouls sufferedContext
15.08
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
3.08
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
100%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.40
ShotsContext
11.70
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
34%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
68%
Box shareContext
59%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
7.90
Shots allowedContext
11.30
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.43
BlocksContext
2.29
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
74%
Save rateContext
77%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
566
PassesContext
350
495
Accurate passesContext
277
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.80
FoulsContext
13.20
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
3.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,784 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Santa Clara
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,533 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
Santa Clara |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec | 9.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,533 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,784 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
4S. Niakaté
14G. Lagerbielke
5Leonardo Lelo
8João Moutinho
27F. Grillitsch
77Gabri Martínez
21Ricardo Horta
39Fran Navarro
10R. Zalazar
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
64Paulo Victor
21F. Ferrão Venâncio
13Luís Rocha
23Sidney Lima
42Lucas Soares
35Serginho
6Adriano
8Pedro Ferreira
11Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
29Wendel
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
1.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 0.83
Santa Clara · Away
0.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | SC Braga | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Rio Ave | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| AVS | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Alverca | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 19 of 30 · 1.90 per game | 10 of 30 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 SC Braga wins1 draws0 Santa Clara wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 3 May 2025SC Braga1–1Santa Clara
- 22 Dec 2024Santa Clara0–2SC Braga
- 14 May 2023SC Braga5–3Santa Clara
- 5 Jan 2023Santa Clara0–4SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.92 | 0.85 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.92 | 1.08 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 1.92 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 38% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 46% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 31% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| SC Braga | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.10 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.73 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.64 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 8.37 | 9.66 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 36% 4/11 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 3/11 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 3.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.69 | 3.38 | |
| Match total | 4.61 | 6.69 | 5.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 85% 11/13 | 85% 11/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 7/13 | 77% 10/13 | |
| SC Braga | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 10.26 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 6.90 | 5.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa Portugal · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 5.19
Red cards0.33league 0.31
Cards 5+50%league 63%
Fouls26.3league 27.5
Penalties0.33league 0.47
Home wins50%league 36%
SC BragaNo previous matches with this referee.
Santa ClaraNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga13 games · scored 25 · conceded 12
5
2
0-15
6
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Santa Clara13 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
4
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
3
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
6
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
