SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards SC Freiburg. SC Braga had 4.1 days of rest, SC Freiburg 4.1 and had to travel 1,467 km.
Away travel1,467 kmRest days4.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d4 · 2
SC Braga35%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg38%
SC Braga45%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg28%
SC Braga36%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg37%
SC Braga28%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg46%
SC Braga37%
Draw28%
SC Freiburg35%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 200
Team strength
SC Braga
SC Freiburg
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
42
AttackIn forecast
63
59
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaSC Freiburg
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.75
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.99
Goals minus xGContext
+1.62
75%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
7.75
ShotsContext
9.25
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
58%
On target shareContext
54%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
81%
Box shareContext
69%
29%
ConversionContext
30%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.50
9.50
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
2.33
BlocksContext
4.25
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
71%
Save rateContext
75%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
542
PassesContext
403
470
Accurate passesContext
334
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.23
14.25
FoulsContext
10.50
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.75
3.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
7.10
ShotsContext
11.30
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
48%
On target shareContext
42%
4.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
67%
Box shareContext
71%
23%
ConversionContext
16%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.50
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
2.50
BlocksContext
3.90
1.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
63%
Save rateContext
68%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
589
PassesContext
395
516
Accurate passesContext
325
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.99
11.90
FoulsContext
9.40
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km4,584 km in 14d
Schedule load45%High
SC Freiburg
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,467 km785 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 45 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr | 4.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 26 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,467 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,584 km | 785 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 4 / 7 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
6Vitor Carvalho
15Paulo Oliveira
14G. Lagerbielke
2Víctor Gómez
34D. Tıknaz
8João Moutinho
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
21Ricardo Horta
10R. Zalazar
18Pau Víctor
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
33J. Makengo
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- SC Freiburg+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
SC Freiburg · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 2.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| SC Braga | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.25 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 9.33 | 8.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.25 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.00 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| SC Braga | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.00 | 8.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 3.10 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.84league 4.33
Red cards0.15league 0.29
Cards 5+38%league 58%
Fouls21.1league 26.2
Penalties0.23league 0.25
Home wins36%league 46%
SC Braga1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D29 Aug 24A · Rapid Vienna2–23
SC Freiburg1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W16 Apr 26A · Celta Vigo3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga4 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
76-90
SC Freiburg4 games · scored 11 · conceded 3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
1
2
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
