SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were clear favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 20). SC Braga had ? days of rest, Tondela ? and had to travel 119 km.
Away travel119 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
SC Braga70%
Draw19%
Tondela11%
SC Braga70%
Draw19%
Tondela11%
SC Braga70%
Draw19%
Tondela11%
SC Braga63%
Draw22%
Tondela15%
SC Braga70%
Draw19%
Tondela11%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 6
Team strength
SC Braga
Tondela
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
42
AttackIn forecast
16
59
DefenceIn forecast
29
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaTondela
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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1.19
xGVia Att/Def
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0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
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+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
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100%
Scored inContext
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20%
Clean sheetsContext
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13.56
ShotsContext
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4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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34%
On target shareContext
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7.78
Shots in the boxContext
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55%
Box shareContext
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12%
ConversionContext
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1.71
OffsidesContext
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8.00
Shots allowedContext
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3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
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2.14
BlocksContext
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2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
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77%
Save rateContext
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57%
PossessionIn forecast
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488
PassesContext
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406
Accurate passesContext
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83%
Pass accuracyContext
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7.10
Team ratingContext
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14.78
FoulsContext
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12.78
Fouls sufferedContext
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1.70
Yellow cardsContext
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0.00
Red cardsContext
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In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tondela
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel119 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
Tondela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 119 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
15Paulo Oliveira
6Vitor Carvalho
5Leonardo Lelo
11I. Gharbi
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
50D. Rodrigues
7R. Fernandes
9A. El Ouazzani
18Pau Víctor
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
60N. Maviram
20Brayan Medina
5João Afonso
48Tiago Manso
97Cicero
8Hélder Tavares
7Pedro Henryque
10J. Hodge
67Yarlen
9Miro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Tondela
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Tondela-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
No home games yet this season.
Tondela · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 48% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| SC Braga | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 48% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.75 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 5.25 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| SC Braga | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.86 | — | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | — | |
| Match total | 9.86 | — | 10.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | — | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | — | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | — | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | — | |
| Match total | 4.00 | — | 5.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | — | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | — | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 5.25
Red cards0.33league 0.00
Cards 5+67%league 75%
Fouls28.2league 30.8
Penalties0.50league 0.00
Home wins33%league 50%
SC BragaNo previous matches with this referee.
TondelaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC BragaTondelaSC Braga10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
5
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Tondelascored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
